What follows is a series of interesting economic and financial charts. While we don't use them for trading, we do like to contemplate them from time to time to get a 'vibe' on the markets.
Europe and International stocks outperforming USA stocks in 2025
16 June 2025
see: awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/06/3-charts-that-will-surprise-you/
Gold's shares of ETFs asset has been around 2% for ten years
26 May 2025
see: rubino.substack.com/p/believe-it-or-not-gold-is-still-out
How stock buybacks affect changes in the SP500
16 May 2025
see: realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/corporate-stock-buybacks-do-they-affect-markets/
Four corporate crimes that allowed corporation profits to rise 50% post-Covid
07 May 2025
see: www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/terminal-rot-corporate-america
Dow-gold ratio from 1905 to 2025 - will we see Dow 5000 gold $50,000
24 April 2025
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-short-bigger-long
25 years of higher interest rates ahead?
05 May 2025
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/25-years-higher-interest-rates-ahead
The 10-year TBond yield rising, whie the USD/EUR exchange rate diverges down, is an indicator of dollar weakness
13 April 2025
see: finance.yahoo.com/news/unusual-market-moves-show-trust-154218110.html
Why gold has risen so sharply in recent months
17 March 2025
see: econofact.org/why-has-the-price-of-gold-risen-so-sharply
Trump's idiotic tax/tariff wars is not only increasing prices for consumers in the USA and sending down the stock market in the USA, investors are selling some of their investments in stocks/ETFs in the USA, and buying stocks/ETFs in Europe. The risks of fiscal austerity and recession in the US is provoking capital to leave that market and travel eastwards to Europe, where massive fiscal expansion is on the cards.
13 March 2025
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/equity-capital-moving-us-europe-greater-zeal
Consumer Confidence Index - Consumer Sentiment Index near a pre-recession peak
28 February 2025
see: www.marketwatch.com/story/will-consumers-gloomy-outlook-take-the-bloom-off-the-stock-market-32a7d184?st=9m9i9a
Overbought/overfold values for 23 country-wide ETFs
10 March 2025
see: www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/the-most-oversold-country-in-the-world
All the money flowing into bitcoin ETFs since the election have lost value
25 February 2025
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/worried-about-crypto-and-its-connection-market
Wall Street analysts are issuing even more insance earnings estimates
25 February 2025
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/estimates-analysts-have-gone-parabolic
Gold outperformed USD and SP500 since January 2022 to January 2025
17 February 2025
see: alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-odd-happenings/
Most job gains in recent years have been people forced from full-time jobs to part-time jobs
07 February 2025
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/my-favorite-housing-market-graph-right-now">
The Fed's inability to forecast GDP
07 February 2025
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/my-favorite-housing-market-graph-right-now">
Great mismatch between housing inventories in Florida/Texas and the Northeast
30 January 2025
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/my-favorite-housing-market-graph-right-now
Many consumer have mexed-out their credit cards and depleted personal savings
30 January 2025
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/inflation-storm-leaves-americans-more-reliant-food-banks
Two consumer charts that should worry the Fed
29 January 2025
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/two-charts-should-worry-fed-and-trump
The next phase of gold's bull market has just begun
19 January 2025
see: www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/next-phase-golds-bull-market-has-just-begun
The 50 largest stocks drive most of the market capitalization - highly unstable
14 January 2025
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/buffett-worrying-should-you
40% of the revenue of SP500 companies comes from abroad - the US cannot win when everyone else loses
12 January 2025
see: www.apolloacademy.com/the-problem-with-the-current-sp-500-narrative/
The recent jump in ISM Prices Paid points to a coming reacceleration in both headline and core inflation
09 January 2025
see: www.apolloacademy.com/inflation-reaccelerating/
Stocks are overpriced relative to bond yields -
08 January 2025
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/credit-spreads-send-warning-stock-investors
The US equities market has the highest level of concentration at the top
30 December 2024
see: www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/concentration
A high P/E ratio is not a stock market sell signal
15 December 2024
see: www.tker.co/p/valuations-terrible-stock-market-timing-tool
Earnings forecasts are very optimistics; SP500/GDP is very extreme
08 December 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/2025-do-economic-indicators-support-bullish-outlooks
Job openings are declining rapidly - a predictor of recessions
08 December 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/falling-cliff-chart-proves-we-are-major-economic-downturn-right-now
Increases in SP500 CAPE valuations are socialistically driven by increases in government spending -
06 December 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/kalecki-profit-equation-and-coming-reversion
Leveraged speculation - surging volume in leveraged single-stock ETFs
27 November 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/leverage-and-speculation-signs-raging-bull-market
A record number of americans plagued by drought amid crop damage fears
06 November 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/weather/record-number-americans-plagued-drought-amid-crop-damage-fears
Correlation between SP500 and Treasury/Corporate-BAA (investment grade) bond yield spread
26 November 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/credit-spreads-markets-early-warning-indicators
The steady 7% rise of the SP500 since 2009, bound between two bands
20 November 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/yardeni-and-long-history-prediction-problems
For two years, home price appreciation tracks bank reserves at the Fed
29 October 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-home-prices-remain-near-record-highs-mortgage-rates-re-surge
Bitcoin is highly correlated with global liquidity since December 2023
25 September 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/crypto/unsurprisingly-bitcoin-price-follows-global-liquidity
How SP500 performs after Fed starts cutting rates, with/out recession
27 September 2024
see: www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/the-invisible-computing-age/rcm
The stock market record high is not a "sugar high", but good earnings
25 September 2024
see: www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/the-new-record-high-for-markets-is-not-a-sugar-high
Most US equity funds can't beat the corresponding index -
09 September 2024
see: awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/09/if-the-prices-are-wrong-you-should-be-rich/
How technological authoritarian and crimes is destroying jobs in the USA
06 September 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/technology/technological-advances-make-things-better-or-do-they
The new number of new construction jobs diverges downward from the total number of construction jobs - which can't last
04 September 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/economics/stunning-chart-ahead-fridays-job-report
Large Cap / Small Cap value ratio suggests market crash coming
31 July 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/there-value-small-cap-value-versus-large-cap-growth
NASDAQ Advance/Decline-to-Nasdaq ratio suggests a crash coming
08 July 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/disconnect-between-market-valuation-and-economic-reality-couldnt-be-more-apparent
Inflation-adjusted statistics suggest a depression is here, at a time when government spending is driving the economy more than personal consumption
25 June 2024
see: brownstone.org/articles/is-the-global-inflationary-depression-already-here/
Money supply growth versus depression
23 June 2024
see: https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1633536085308366866
A 40% decline in the SP500 (P/Es going down to 15 from 24), while a 'bear' market, would be a mini-bear, the reversion would only reverse the post-pandemic stimulus-driven gains. In other words, a near 40% correction would NOT be a 'bear market', but just a correction in the ongoing bull market since 2009.
21 June 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/fundamental-shift-higher-valuations
SP500 charts for the coming crash
04 June 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/deviations-long-term-growth-trends-back-extremes
Swiss Franc tied to the Euro
31 May 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/swiss-franc-pinned-against-dollar-euro-has-tailwind-versus-yen
Chicago PMI unexpectedly plummets to Great Recession levels
31 May 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/economics/chicago-pmi-unexpectedly-craters-depression-levels
The Incompetent forecasting record of the Fed and the market of Fed funds rate
07 May 2024
see: www.apolloacademy.com/the-forecasting-record-of-the-fed-and-the-market/
Change in SP500 leadership can predict market bottoms
05 May 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/change-sp-leadership-suggests-bottom-near
Is silver about to rise rapidly as has cocoa?
13 April 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/silver-about-do-cocoa
The 40-year downtrend in the price of Treasury Bonds
12 April 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/secular-trend-treasuries-breaking-down
The irrationality of the SP500 today due to options
12 April 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-surge-goldgasms-record-high-after-adjusted-ppi-sparks-buying-frenzy
Gold is not a good hedge for consumer inflation
10 April 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/inflation-has-become-bigger-risk-stretched-gold-prices
Margin debt surges as bulls leverage bets
09 April 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/margin-debt-surges-bulls-leverage-bets
Excess liquidity is driving up the SP500 and bitcoin
09 April 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/next-several-weeks-we-could-see-300-billion-liquidity-leaving-system
Momentum stocks are way overbought
09 April 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-face-rug-pull-extreme-momentum-move
Rising inflation data implies bond/stock volatility has to rise
04 April 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/bond-markets-eerie-calm-belies-bigger-move-way
Either gold prices have to come down, or real interest rates on 10-year bonds have to go negative
04 April 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/golds-defiance-real-yields-cant-last-unless-trouble-brewing
An "All or Nothing Day" is when the daily advance/decline line (the difference between the number of S&P 500 stocks rising and falling on a given day) comes in at above +400 or below -400. In other words, these are days when broad swathes of the market trade in the same direction.
28 March 2024
see: www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/all-or-nothing-comes-back
End of the month short squeeze sends small cap stocks higher
27 March 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/trumpnpump-continues-massive-squeeze-lifts-small-caps-month-end-bonds-bullion-bid
How Fed announcements, not 10-year bond yields, change the direction of gold prices
26 March 2024
see: politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/03/gold-prices-and-fed.html
VIX is showing signs of rising from its bottom
26 March 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/long-volatility-trade-may-be-widow-maker-no-more
Central banks exist to make rich people, the 1%-ers, richer. Everyone else gets crumbs.
24 March 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/insanity-our-world-driven-money-printing
US bank reserves at The Fed shrank this week as US equity market cap soared to a new record high
22 March 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/large-us-banks-suffer-another-weekly-deposits-outflow-stocks-fed-reserves-completely
Inversion of the yield curve is not working now as a recession indicator, but must at some point as distortions stop and debt levels become too high: capitalism works best when there is a positive return for taking more risk with lending and investments further out the curve
21 March 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/after-625-days-longest-yield-curve-inversion-history
Stocks havce become more expensive - too much demand, not enough supply
18 March 2024
see: theirrelevantinvestor.com/2024/03/18/why-are-u-s-stocks-so-expensive/
Global disinflation is occurring less around the world
18 March 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/rates-markets-are-hawkish-tipping-point
Household equity allocations suggest caution, and market peak
15 March 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-stocks-increasingly-exposed-growth-slowdown
Retail stocks increasingly exposed to growth slowdown, affect P/Es
15 March 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-stocks-increasingly-exposed-growth-slowdown
The distribution of P/E ratios for the S&P 500 shows that stocks today are more overvalued than they were in March 2000
12 March 2024
see: www.apolloacademy.com/ai-bubble-is-bigger-than-the-1990s-tech-bubble/
Ludricrous stocks (market cap > $500 million, P/S > 10, YoY increase > 100%)
07 March 2024
see: www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/the-ludicrous-list
5 charts illustrating problems with banks (that the FDIC doesn't want you to see)
07 March 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/these-are-5-charts-fdic-does-not-want-you-paying-attention
Stock markets linger longer at market tops, while quickly bounce from market bottoms
07 March 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock-markets-top-will-outlast-your-disbelief
Forward 10-year total returns will be low
05 March 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/valuation-metrics-and-volatility-suggest-investor-caution
Bubbly parts of the market might get bubblier still
05 March 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/bubbly-parts-market-might-get-bubblier-still
Global stocks markets are still not partying like 1999
05 March 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/global-markets-are-not-partying-its-1999-yet
Breakevens are soaring (the market's bet on where inflation will be)
04 March 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/valuation-metrics-and-volatility-suggest-investor-caution
US growth stocks look very good expensive relative to T-bills
04 March 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/good-story-versus-bad-valuations
Traders have complained that the current market has "lacked breadth". Low correlation tells us not all components are moving in the same direction.
04 March 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/dispersion-correlation-volatility-and-stock-bubble
Technology stocks maybe in a 2000s-like bubble
05 March 2024
see: www.zerohedge.com/markets/while-market-not-yet-bubble-territory-tech-may-already-be
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