KukaXoco Finance: Investment Center

   Can't Beat SPY and the Gold


     There are a large number of poorly run, and/or with lousy innovation, and/or focused on rewarding executives over shareholders, that across 10/20/30 years -- cannot outperform the SP500 Index (tradeable as SPY) and the price of gold (tradeable as GLD). Fun for speculative trading, the following should not be in most people's portfolios. And many of these companies have a lot of debt, making them 'zombie' companies - the walking dead.

Below are links to our web pages with technical analysis tools and relevant markets news for various stocks, commodities and futures.



STOCKS/ACCIONES & ETFS
(Note: Text in brown below are clickable links.   (D) means the stock/ETF has daily options with high liquidity. (W) means the stock/ETF has weekly options with high liquidity. (F) means that there is a corresponding futures contract. --- (D) significa que la acción/ETF tiene opciones diarias con alta liquidez. (W) significa que la acción/ETF tiene opciones semanales con alta liquidez. (F) significa que existe un contrato de futuros correspondiente. The numbers in brackets, '[]', are the dividend (if any), the rough cost of a one-week/one-month option.
[trend up / trend down: tendencia al alza / tendencia a la baja]
)
STUPIDITY THAT CAN'T BEAT GOLD
ESTUPIDEZ QUE NO PUEDE VENCER AL ORO


Find something whose economics is incompetently managed (such as most countries' currencies - from 2000 to 2022, gold beat the nine biggest currencies in the world). Short that incompetence, and use the proceeds to buy gold. This is the gold as "anti-stupidity insurance". Similarly, if a company can't beat gold in the long, it should be put out of its (and our) misery. This has mostly worked for the last 20 years, except when the Fed's MMT policies pushed interest rates to to less than 1% (2009-2020). Click here for: lengthy table of stocks whose price rose less than gold in the last 20 years. Note: gold doesn't pay dividends. This can be compensated for by including some options in the long-gold-short stupid strategy, for those who whine about the importance of dividends. Though gold has outperformed inflation in the USA since 1970.

And if a company underperforms gold/GLD, it will more underperform the SPY ETF. Which is why Warren Buffett argues that the SPY ETF (or equivalent SP500 stock/ETF) is the best option for most investors. In almost every year since 2001, the SPY/SP500 has outperformed most stocks and investment funds. If the pros can't beat the SPY/SP500 with their picks, individual investors will have less success. And the SPY/VOO have very low annual fees, as opposed to investment funds.

PATENTING COMPANIES WITH STOCK PRICES -- GROSSLY -- UNDERPERFORMING GOLD FOR DECADES

That the company with the largest number of patents (IBM), a company dedicated to monetizing patents (Acacia Research), a company so troubled that in 2022 it sold off all of its patents (Blackberry) - appear below in a table of companies with lots of patents whose stock prices have grossly underperformed gold for two decades - well, yeah, this does raise questions about the innovation and patenting competence and management of all of these companies.

IOOOO, these following companies subscribe to the law of the passage of quantitative changes into qualitative changes, that quantity begets quality. At least for patents, it doesn't. The large number of 'innovative' patents held by the following companies, and their poor return to shareholders, is one strong reason Why we need to stop relying on patents to measure innovation, at least for these companies. Note: dividends are not factored into returns below. SPY has dividends, and performs similarly to Gold, so dividends aren't that helpful if your stock price is lousy. Tech companies that peaked 2000 were part of the artificial dot-com bubble, which crashed.

COMPANY STOCK GAIN         GOLD GAIN         DATE RANGE         NUMBER    
 PATENTS    
BOND RATINGS        
ABB LTD [ABBN.SW, 2%] (chart)      +28%
+810%
2000-2024
ACACIA RESEARCH [ACTG, 0%] (chart)      0%
+622%
2003-2024
ATT [T, 4%] (chart)      -14%
+810%
2000-2024
BARRICK GOLD [GOLD, 2.2%] (chart)      +8%
+810%
2000-2024
BCE (Bell Canada) [BCE, 13%] (chart)      0%
+746%
2002-2024
BLACKBERRY [BB, 0%] (chart)      0%
+868%
2001-2024
BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB [BMY, 5%] (chart)      0%
+810%
2000-2024
CORNING [GLW, 2.5%] (chart)      0%
+810%
2000-2024
ERICSSON [ERIC, 3.3%] (chart)      0%
+541%
2004-2024
EXXON [XOM, %3.7] (chart)      +170%
+810%
2000-2024
FORD [F, 5.9%] (chart)      0%
+622%
2003-2024 BB+, Ba2, BB, BBB+
FOXCONN [2354.TW, 2.5%] (chart)      +210%
+810%
2000-2024
FREQ. ELEC. [FEIM, 0%] (chart)      +100%
+622%
2003-2024
FUJITSU [6702.T, 1.0%] (chart)      -20%
+810%
2000-2024
GENERAL ELECTRIC (chart) (fn. 4)      -69%
+549%
2002-2022 BBB, Baa1, BBB+
HITACHI [6501.T, 1.2%] (chart)      +130%
+810%
2000-2024
IBM (chart) (fn. 2)      +81%
+555%
1999-2022 A2, A
JUNIPER NETWORKS (chart)      -65%
+629%
2001-2022 A2, A
LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR (chart)      +90%
+643%
2001-2022 A2, A
MICRON (chart)      +64%
+602%
2001-2022
NOKIA (chart) (fn. 3)      -89%
+608%
2001-2022
PANASONIC (chart)      -58%
+602%
2001-2022
PFIZER (chart)      +22%
+626%
2001-2022 A+, A2, A+
K. PHILIPS (chart)      -12%
+608%
2001-2022
RENESAS ELECTRONICS (chart)      -82%
+375%
2004-2022
ROHM (chart)      -52%
+608%
2001-2022
SANOFI (chart)      +108%
+436%
2003-2022
SONY (chart)      +14%
+602%
2001-2022 BBB+, Baa1, A-
TOSHIBA (chart) (fn. 1)        +8%
+591%
2002-2022
WELLS FARGO (chart)      +71%
+609%
2002-2022 A+, A2, BBB+
VERIZON (chart)      +10%
+608%
2002-2022 A-, Baa1, BB+
Note: most of the above companies not only have been unable to beat gold as an investment, but they didn't even beat boring, conservative bonds as an investment. Since 2003, the Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is up 53%, pretty much outperforming all of the above. More evidence of a lack of innovation as reflected in too many low quality patents for these companies?
And these companies are not alone in being minimally innovative. Goldman Sachs maintains an index, the GS Non-Profitable Technology Index, comprised of non-profitable US companies in 'innovative' industries. In recent years, the index has exploded higher - confirming more non-innovation:


PATENTING COMPANIES WITH STOCK PRICES UNDERPERFORMING GOLD FOR DECADES

COMPANY STOCK GAIN         GOLD GAIN         DATE RANGE         NUMBER PATENTS         BOND RATINGS        
ADP (chart)    +582%
+321%
2001-2022
AIR PRODUCTS (chart)    +582%
+520%
2001-2022
AMD (chart)    +656%
+609%
2001-2022
AMGEN (chart)    +258%
+626%
2001-2022
AKAMAI TECH (chart)    +464%
+608%
2001-2022
ANALOG DEVICES (chart)    +218%
+608%
2001-2022
APPLIED MATERIALS (chart)    +574%
+609%
2001-2022
ARROW ELECTRONICS (chart)    +262%
+566%
2001-2022
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY (chart)    +657%
+492%
2001-2022
BOEING (chart)    +242%
+611%
2002-2022
BOSTON SCIENTIFIC (chart)    +549%
+624%
2001-2022
CADENCE (chart)    +490%
+639%
2002-2022 Aa2, AA
CHEVRON (chart)    +293%
+607%
2002-2022 Aa2, AA
CISCO (chart)    +204%
+611%
2002-2022 A1, AA-, A+
COCA-COLA (chart)    +117%
+626%
2002-2022 A, A1, A+
DIAGEO (chart)    +372%
+625%
2001-2022
DISNEY (chart)    +356%
+607%
2001-2022 A-, A2, BBB+
ELECTRONIC ARTS (chart)    +355%
+648%
2001-2022
FEDEX (chart)    +353%
+643%
2001-2022
GENERAL DYNAMICS (chart)    +517%
+607%
2001-2022
GLAXOSMITHKLINE (chart)      -19%
+607%
2002-2022 A-, A2, A
HERSHEY (chart)    +597%
+583%
2001-2022
HONEYWELL (chart)    +332%
+601%
2001-2022
HP (chart)    +148%
+608%
2001-2022
INTEL (chart)    +115%
+556%
2002-2022 A+, A1, A+
JOHNSON JOHNSON (chart)    +278%
+625%
2001-2022 Aaa, AAA
MAGNA INTERNATIONAL (chart)    +523%
+629%
2001-2022
MEDTRONIC (chart)    +106%
+626%
2001-2022
3M (chart)    +145%
+608%
2001-2022
MONDELEZ (chart)    +227%
+587%
06/2001-2022
MOTOROLA (chart)    +215%
+607%
2001-2022
NINTENDO (chart)    +186%
+592%
2001-2022
ORACLE (chart)    +183%
+608%
2001-2022 A-, A3, A
PEPSICO (chart)    +247%
+624%
2001-2022 A-, A3, A
PHILADELPHIA SEMICON INDEX (chart)    +366%
+618%
2002-2022
QUALCOMM (chart)    +225%
+643%
2001-2022 A-, A3, A
RAYTHEON (chart)    +395%
+602%
2001-2022 Baa1, A-
RUSSELL2000 (chart)    +247%
+600%
2001-2022
SAP SE (chart)    +227%
+608%
2001-2022
THOMSON REUTERS (chart)    +226%
+406%
2003-2022
TI (chart)    +283%
+602%
2001-2022
TOKYO ELECTRON (chart)    +651%
+608%
2002-2022






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