Financial News on Bonds

How important are bonds? Political consultant James Carville summed it up best and tight: "I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody." Wikipedia: Bonds

• Turmoil from the Iran war causes stocks and bonds to decline, while oil and bitcoin rise in price
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 13 March 2026

• For the fiscal year to date, the U.S. budget deficit totaled $1.004 trillion, about 12% lower than the comparable period in 2025, as government revenues rose faster than spending. Net interest payments on the nearly $39 trillion national debt totaled $79 billion in February, more than any category except Social Security, income security and health care.
  - Versant's CNBC, 12 March 2026

• A food shock could be as bad for bonds as an energy shock
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 11 March 2026

• The Treasury Bond market is not ready for an energy shock. Treasury yields are not yet pricing in the full ramifications of the energy shock.
  - Zero Hedge, 10 March 2026

• Stock prices are slammed below a key support level, as the price of oil continues to rise, and Treasury Bond yields soar
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 05 March 2026

• The Dow loses more than 780 points as oil rises above $80 per barrel
  - The Hill, 05 March 2026

• The Iran conflict spurs rebound in borrowing costs in the USA. Inflation worries have pushed the 10-year Treasury Bond yields back above 4%.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 05 March 2026

• The sovereign debt of Zhōngguó is becoming a strategic alternative to USA Treasury Bonds. Zhōngguó is now offering dollar-denominated sovereign bonds at rates matching equivalent USA Treasury Bonds - an investors are snapping them up.
  - Alibaba's South China Morning Post, 04 March 2026

• Ex-Goldman Sachs CEO, Lloyd Blankfein, sounds the alarm on private credit market - warning it "smells" like the financial crash of 2008. He argues that the $1.8 trillion private credit sector involves risks from hidden leverage, lack of liquidity and opaque assets.
  - MYNP, 03 March 2026

• "From orderly selloff, to panic": stocks, bonds plunge as oil, dollar soar on Iran war
  - Zero Hedge, 03 March 2026

• 10-year Treasury Bond yields rise after a surge in ISM Manufacturing pricees
  - Zero Hedge, 02 March 2026

• 10-year Treasury Bond yields rise after a surge in ISM Manufacturing pricees
  - Zero Hedge, 02 March 2026

• Bond prices could decline after the Supreme Court struck down Trump's taxes/tariffs. If companies and consumers get a refund of $175 billion (taxes/tariffs already collected), that is fiscal stimulus that could contribute to higher inflation, pushing down bond prices. Plus, the Treasury would have to issue more debt to cover the tab, which would add to the deficit and put downward pressure on bond prices (pushing up bond yields).
  - Barron's, 28 February 2026

• "Be long the makers (commodities and commodity indexes) and short the takers (government bonds)": Goldman Sach's Delta-One desk-head warns the "pace of change is astounding"
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 27 February 2026

• Bond flows are at odds with falling inflation forecasts. Investment flows suggest the market isn't comfortable with the notion that inflation is yesterday's problem.
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 26 February 2026

• As the national debt of the USA keeps ballooning, options are narrowing to avert a financial crisis.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 25 February 2026

• The yen declines after the prime minister of Nihon voices concerns about further interest rate increases at a meeting with the Bank of Nihon
  - Zero Hedge, 24 February 2026

• How the world's most boring bond market became a "battlefield". Trading of the government bonds of Nihon, long considered moribund, is roaring back to life as fears of the high levels of national debt ($9 trillion) in Nihon have sent bond yields surging.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 23 February 2026

• The [authoritarian] reign of the USA dollar is coming to an end. What investors can do about it. Investment in foreign stocks and debt could be juiced by a falling dollar.
  - Barron's, 21 February 2026

• The ECB quietly prepares global liquidity backstop as euro debt wave builds
  - Zero Hedge, 20 February 2026

• The bond market's 'quiet stabilizer' is fading - the purchase of international bonds by people in Nihon) is fading as bond yields in Nihon rise to new heights from decades of low bond yields. If investors in Nihon start selling their foreign bond holdings to buy their own country's bonds, this will force up yields on foreign bonds, with USA Treasury Bonds most at risk for having to offer higher yields, which is not good for the economy of the USA given its massive debt.
  - Versant's CNBC, 20 February 2026

• How fixed-rate bonds could be hurting your returns. Floating-rate debt outperforms fixed-rate holdings when interest rates are rising, research finds, but be prepared to pivot when they start falling.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 19 February 2026

• How the world's most boring bond market became a 'battlefield'. Trading of the government bonds of Nihon, long considered moribund, is roaring back to life as fears of the Nihon's debt have sent bond yields surging.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 18 February 2026

• Is it too early to call end of bear market in USA Treasury Bonds? The bear market in longer-dated Treasuries is not over yet.
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 17 February 2026

• Why sovereign wealth funds in Asia are rethinking purchases of large quantities of USA Treasury Bonds
  - Alibaba's South China Morning Post, 15 February 2026

• The demand for bonds is insatiable. Even risky borrowers are reaping the benefits. Hard-to-shake optimism and a scarcity of long-dated debt have helped drive spreads to historic lows.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 13 February 2026

• Trump's taxes/tariffs leave importers with record-breaking $3.5 billion U.S. Customs bond funding shortfall
  - Versant's CNBC, 13 February 2026

• The central bank of Zhōngguó keeps buying gold, and selling USA Treasury Bonds
  - Zero Hedge, 12 February 2026

• Investing legend David Einhorn says that gold is replacing USA Treasury Bonds as a global reserve asset, attesting to its safe-haven status and shakier confidence in the US macro and fiscal outlook.
  - Business Insider, 12 February 2026

• The corporate bond market faces historic shock as Mag 7 tech giants turn cash flow negative to fund a huge Capex tsunami for their AI [bubble]
  - Zero Hedge, 10 February 2026

• A municipal debt boom is driving public projects and tax breaks for investors. Municipal debt issuance surpassed $500 billion last year, a record that is found a deep pool of buyers.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 10 February 2026

• Zhōngguó might be beginning to back away from USA debt as investors get nervous about overexposure to financial assets in the USA
  - Jiaravanon's Fortune, 09 February 2026

• USA Treasury Bond prices extended their declines (and thus yields rose) after regulators in Zhōngguó were said to have advised the nation's financial institutions to rein in their holdings of US government bonds due to concerns over market volatility.
  - Bloomberg, 09 February 2026

• The government of Zhōngguó tells banks to limit exposure to USA Treasury Bonds, but to some this is "hardly an issue at all"
  - Zero Hedge, 09 February 2026

• Google plans the technology world's first 100-year bond since the DotCom [crash]. [KM: whatever it takes to keep the bubble inflated]
  - Bloomberg, 09 February 2026

• Kevin Warsh, Trump's pick for next Fed chair, will soon realize that current chair Jerome Powell was never very powerful. There are other central banks, and the heavy hand of the bond markets.
  - Forbes, 08 February 2026

• [VIDEO]: how the national debt problem is fueling the rise in the price of gold
  - Bloomberg, 07 February 2026

• Collateralized loan obligations, the funds that buy risky debt and slice it up into safer IOUs, are the $1.4 trillion engine powering the U.S. corporate credit market. Annuity peddlers have piled into the asset class, which is set for torrential demand in 2026. Slimming returns and the specter of past excesses loom, however. The boom has also been a windfall for the CLO managers, who are paid to select and oversee the loans that go into the vehicles, and who also often happen to be owned by private equity groups. The high demand for CLO debt has reduced returns.
  - Thomson's Reuters, 02 February 2026

• Treasury Bonds have become another risk asset. They are no longer trading counter-cyclically with the economy.
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 29 January 2026

• Trump sparks a rise in gold prices as Goldman Sachs sees the dollar demise 'just getting going'; a 'gamma wall' gags equity gains
  - Zero Hedge, 28 January 2026

• Gold (GC=F) futures jumped above $5,500 per ounce on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, while a weaker dollar fueled the debasement trade, pushing investors toward hard assets.
  - Apollo Global's Yahoo Finance, 28 January 2026

• Gold futures and prices jumped above $5,300 per ounce on Wednesday before easing as a weak dollar fueled the debasement trade, driving investors away from fiat currencies and government bonds
  - Zero Hedge, 28 January 2026

• A municipal debt boom is driving public projects and tax breaks for investors. Municipal debt issuance surpassed $500 billion last year, a record that has found a deep pool of buyers.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 28 January 2026

• Investors are souring on the bonds of software companies that service industries ranging from automotive to finance as fast-paced artificial intelligence innovations threaten to upend their business models
  - Bloomberg (locked), 28 January 2026

• Record debt in the world's richest nations threatens global growth. The cost of borrowing is already choking crucial public spending in many developing economies. Now [only now?] it is raising broader alarms.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 27 January 2026

• The Federal Reserve, signaling little urgency, prepares to pause on interest rate reductions. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday, despite relentless attacks from President Trump over borrowing costs.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 27 January 2026

• The Fed is set to pause interest rate reductions, with no clear path to resuming. Officials, who are meeting this week, are divided over when the inflation data will justify further reductions.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 27 January 2026

• Ray Dalio argues that we are experiencing is not de-dollarisation, but de-fiatization. That is, flight from fiat currencies in favor of real assets, or to real money in the form of gold and silver that don't have counterparty risk (such as with bonds and fiat currencies).
  - Zero Hedge, 26 January 2026

• [More conservative Republican socialism in Texas]: cities in Texas are gambing $8 billion of taxpayers' dollars to build huge convention centers that rarely "pay for themselves", but instead, are more likely to become massive money pits, with taxpayers left on the hook [to socialistically pay off the municipal bonds] long after the politicians who approved them are gone.
  - City Journal, 26 January 2026

• A tough reaction from the global bond market was behind [TACO] Trump's abrupt deescalation on Greenland. The 10-year Treasury Bond yields spiked to above 4.3% and stocks sold off, and hard. When Trump [TACOed], bond yields declined and stocks rose.
  - Murdoch's New York Post, 24 January 2026

• Trump's stormy first year has made [KM: the rich richer]. Stocks are up, and 10-year Treasury Bond yields are down [KM: good for the rich]. Still, the is one asset that shows how stressed people in the USA are.
  - Barron's, 24 January 2026

• The Federal Reserve's growing footprint on the market has a cost. An expanding Fed balance sheet will drive up asset prices, Brij Khurana writes in a guest commentary.
  - Barron's, 24 January 2026

• Nihon's Prime Minister Takaichi runs the risk of provoking the bond vigilantes. With debt running at 200% of GDP, unfunded tax cuts could be a problem. Still, the prime minister is very popular, and Nihon is a creditor nation with a currency that is seemingly fated to rebound.
  - Barron's, 24 January 2026

• Second act of new world order in markets is underway. The commodities rally is only just beginning, as countries shift toward greater self-reliance and less efficient use of resources while becoming more indebted.
  - Zero Hedge, 22 January 2026

• The economic leverage that Europe has over the economy of the USA. More than $5.4 billion worth of goods and services are traded between the United States and European Union each day, backed by extensive cross-border investments that support millions of jobs. European investors hold vast amounts of U.S. financial assets, including $2 trillion of Treasury debt. The U.S. government runs a large deficit that depends on foreign creditors to purchase these bonds. What if they stopped buying?
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 22 January 2026

• A year in, Trump's economy is worse than the numbers. The fiscal effects of the coming tax cut and the continuing threats to Fed independence augur ill.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 22 January 2026

• Bond-market backlash triggers reality check for the leader of Nihon ahead of election. Sanae Takaichi's plan to win over cost-of-living-conscious voters spooked investors, driving a government bond selloff around the world.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 22 January 2026

• [Editorial]: the bond vigilantes head to Nihon. Surging long rates warn that Nihon needs better economic policies.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 21 January 2026

• "The USA is basically not a good credit risk": a pension fund in Denmark to sell USA Treasury Bonds. The good news: it is only $100 million. The bad news: others are now sure to follow. The question: where do they put their money instead.
  - Versant's CNBC, 20 January 2026

• "The USA is basically not a good credit risk": a pension fund in Denmark to sell USA Treasury Bonds. The good news: it is only $100 million. The bad news: others are now sure to follow. The question: where do they put their money instead.
  - Zero Hedge, 20 January 2026

• Homebuyers now have a Greenland problem thanks to Trump: mortgage rates increase on Trump's geopolitical and tax/tariff turmoil. Rising tensions due to Trump's Greenland overtures undid a recent mortgage rate drop.
  - Apollo Global's Yahoo Finance, 20 January 2026

• Dow futures tumble nearly 700 points after Trump threatens Europe with new taxes/tariffs over Greenland
  - Versant's CNBC, 20 January 2026

• USA 30-year Treasury Bond yields jump 0.09% basis points as Trump's latest trade war fears reignite
  - Versant's CNBC, 20 January 2026

• Government bond yields in Nihon soar to all time highs after prime minister Takaichi calls snap election seeking more spending, less taxes
  - Zero Hedge, 19 January 2026

• The UK's prime minister, Keir Starmer, confronts Trump on Greenland: "We must stand up for out value"
  - The Hill, 19 January 2026

• Trump's taxes/tariffs pose a danger to political and economic liberty
  - Real Clear Markets, 19 January 2026

• Trump wants more taxes/tariffs on imports from Europe? Well, Deutsche Bank observes that Europe owns $8 trillion of USA Treasury bonds and USA equities. Might Europe start selling?
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 19 January 2026

• Trump wants more taxes/tariffs on imports from Europe? Well, Deutsche Bank observes that Europe owns $8 trillion of USA Treasury bonds and USA equities. Might Europe start selling?
  - Fortune (locked), 19 January 2026

• If Europe wants to 'weaponize' its $10 trillion of USA assets (Treasury bonds, stocks, et.c), it will be a tough ask for Europe. The bulk of these assets are held by private funds outside the control of governments, and in any case such a move would likely hurt European investors too.
  - Bloomberg, 19 January 2026

• The Prime Minister of Nihon, Sanae Takaichi, on Monday called a snap general election with a vow to suspend 8% food tax for two years, echoing proposals by her rivals despite the potential strain on the already precarious finances of Nihon. A consumption tax cut that many opposition parties have also proposed would create a huge hole in state revenue at a time when concern over the fiscal health of Nihon is pushing up bond yields to multi-decade highs.
  - Warner Brothers CNN, 19 January 2026

• The Prime Minister of Nihon, Sanae Takaichi, on Monday called a snap general election with a vow to suspend 8% food tax for two years, echoing proposals by her rivals despite the potential strain on the already precarious finances of Nihon. A consumption tax cut that many opposition parties have also proposed would create a huge hole in state revenue at a time when concern over the fiscal health of Nihon is pushing up bond yields to multi-decade highs.
  - Versant's CNBC, 19 January 2026

• Corporate bonds sold [to help inflate the AI bubble] could devour credit markets. Let institutional stock investors take the risk. Amazon, Facebook, and other large tech companies are issuing more debt than ever. Why you should steer clear.
  - Barron's, 17 January 2026

• Stocks with juicy dividends are tempting. But how risky are they? If the dividend yield exceeds the bond yield, it is a sign that bond investors are comfortable with a company's creditworthiness and that the dividend is relatively safe.
  - Barron's, 17 January 2026

• Zhōngguó sells more USA Treasury Bonds, and buys other financial assets, as [the authoritarian] Trump attacks Fed Chair Powell. Zhōngguó holdings of USA Treasury Bonds declined to levels last seen in September 2008, and analysts point to fears over Fed independence and debt sustainability, while the appeal of gold rises.
  - Alibaba's South China Morning Post (locked), 16 January 2026

• Fiscal QE/[moneyprinting] for mortgage bonds is recipe for inflation. Even though homebuyer affordability will likely improve initially, fueling consumption, the end result could well be the exact opposite due to higher mortgage rates and real estate prices.
  - Zero Hedge, 15 January 2026

• TACO Trump? It is the financial traders who are chickening out now. Markets, especially bond markets, are meant to be a disciplining force. Their inaction will only embolden Trump to act more recklessly. While global fund managers claim that inflation and a disorderly rise in bond yields are among the biggest risks in markets, US stocks are at record highs while Treasury yields have barely budged. Investors are not putting their money where their mouth is. Complacency and the fear of missing out on further gains in asset prices are plausible explanations. A more troubling one is that Wall Street is afraid of Trump given his propensity for retribution.
  - Alibaba's South China Morning Post, 15 January 2026

• The stock market is positioned for an impossible outcome. Either a greater chance of recession needs to be priced in via lower yields and stock prices, or higher inflation should be reflected in higher yields, and likely equities too. Both ways, this has volatility written all over it.
  - Zero Hedge, 13 January 2026

• From Nihon with chaos - the government bond yield shock no one wants. The monthly RSI for 10-year government bonds in Nihon rose to its most overbought level since 1980.
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 13 January 2026

• Trump's new housing strategy (mortgage bond buying) is all about boosting buyers now. Proposals unveiled this past week aim to give home buyers more purchasing power but do not address the housing shortage at the root of the affordability crisis.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 12 January 2026

• As the national debt of the USA soars past $38 trillion, the flood of corporate bonds is a growing competitive threat to the sales of USA Treasury Bonds, which could send interest rates higher [KM: no matter how much Trump turns the Fed into his puppets]
  - Jiaravanon's Fortune, 11 January 2026

• Traders and investors are reducing their longs or going short in Treasuries, in defiance of renewed geopolitical uncertainty, as the possibility that the US economy is strengthening is priced in.
  - Zero Hedge, 09 January 2026

• Another [nationalist socialist] industrial policy from [the racist] Trump: Trump orders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - "my representatives" - to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds in effort to lower housing costs by reducing interest rates and monthly payments. Not also a successful intervention. For instance, the Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate multiple times last year and in 2024, which traditionally would also help lower mortgage rates. However, mortgage rates have remained elevated in part because Americans who got low mortgage rates during the pandemic haven't been moving.
  - Warner Brothers CNN, 09 January 2026

• Another [nationalist socialist] industrial policy from [the racist] Trump: Trump orders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - "my representatives" - to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds in effort to lower housing costs by reducing interest rates and monthly payments. Not also a successful intervention. For instance, the Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate multiple times last year and in 2024, which traditionally would also help lower mortgage rates. However, mortgage rates have remained elevated in part because Americans who got low mortgage rates during the pandemic haven't been moving.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 09 January 2026

• A reflation 'butterfly is beating its wings'. Low volatility and building pressure in bond yields in Zhōngguó suggests they are on the verge of breaking out to the upside, with reflationary consequences for the US and the rest of the world.
  - Zero Hedge, 08 January 2026

• Bond volatility is dead ... long live bond volatility. Bond volatility obliterated: the Liberation Day reset crushed premiums, setting up asymmetric upside.
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 06 January 2026

• The fiscal illusions of Deutschland: bond markets rebuke Chancellor Merz's debt spiral. Deutschland was long seen as a bastion of fiscal stability in the Eurozone. But the erratic fiscal policy of the Merz government is now creating tensions in the bond market. Risk premiums on traditional periphery sovereigns like Italy, Portugal and España relative to Deutschland Bunds are shrinking.
  - Zero Hedge, 05 January 2026

• The next group of Senators will not be able to dodge the Social Security funding crisis in the USA. Those elected this fall will face the program's 2032 insolvency deadline during their six-year terms.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 02 January 2026

• Bitcoin is bruised on boxing day, bonds bid as precious metals rip to new record highs
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 26 December 2025

• Shares of Oracle on pace for the worst quarter since 2001 as new CEOs face concerns about its debt-laden AI build-out
  - Versant's CNBC, 26 December 2025

• How Oracle became a 'poster child' for the AI bubble fears
  - Apollo Global's Yahoo Finance, 26 December 2025

• If the "scary" chart of the past couple of weeks has been the rising cost of Oracl's credit default swaps, last week it was the sharply rising 10-year yields of government bonds in Nihon (which pulls gambling money out of the USA stock market - the carry trade - back to Nihon)
  - Zero Hedge, 21 December 2025

• Bond Volatility is screaming all-time-highs for the SPX/SPY. SPX loves falling bond volatility - and the MOVE just crashed.
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 19 December 2025

• The Bank of Nihon raises interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, taking another landmark step in ending decades of huge monetary support and near-zero borrowing costs. The Bank also stated that it will continue to raise interest rates depending on the economy.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 19 December 2025

• Loss of credibility: the yen craters, and government bond yields surge after the Bank of Nihon increases interest rates to highest since 1999
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 19 December 2025

• The Bank of Nihon raises interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, taking another landmark step in ending decades of huge monetary support and near-zero borrowing costs. The Bank also stated that it will continue to raise interest rates depending on the economy.
  - Thomson's Reuters, 19 December 2025

• The Bank of Nihon raised interest rates. Here is why you should care. Interest rate rises in Nihon might even push up the cost of borrowing in the USA.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 19 December 2025

• Zhōngguó reduces its holdings of USA Treasury Bonds to the lowest level since 2008
  - Alibaba's South China Morning Post, 19 December 2025

• JPMorgan is the bank behind the repo crisis and the Fed's decision to launch [money-printing] quantitative easing ... again. " ... the scale of JPMorgan's withdrawals was so large as to offset the movement of cash in and out of the Fed by all of the rest of the 4,000-plus banks in the USA ..."
  - Zero Hedge, 18 December 2025

• The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation said it is set to bring tokenized US Treasurys onchain, and plans to expand to a "broad spectrum" of assets in the future. The DTCC said on Wednesday that it plans to "enable a subset of US Treasury securities" custodied at its subsidiary, the Depository Trust Company, to be minted on the Canton Network, a permissioned blockchain created by the fintech company Digital Asset.
  - CoinTelegraph, 17 December 2025

• 10-year government bonds sold by Nihon are running the show, and markets should be nervous. Gold gets it - which is tracking Nihon's 10-year bond yields tick for tick.
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 17 December 2025

• The long end revolts - you should be nervous. Bond yields are rising even in deflation-hit Zhōngguó. The Fed may reduce interest rates, but global rates dont't care - and that is bad news for stock prices in the USA.
  - Zero Hedge, 14 December 2025

• The Federal Reserve buying billions in Treasury Bonds. Just don't call this [socialist money-printing] 'quantitative easing'.
  - Barron's, 13 December 2025

• Oracle annonuces $455 billion of future orders, on September. Its stock was hugely pumped. But then investors learn that at least $300 billion of those orders was solely due to OpenAI. From its peak in September, Oracle investors have lost $360 billion.
  - Apollo Global's Yahoo Finance, 11 December 2025

• Why Oracle is worrying investors about the AI boom/[bubble]. Shares in the technology company are down as investors grow anxious that Oracle's bet on artificial intelligence, and OpenAI in particular, may not pay off.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 11 December 2025

• Shares of Oracle plummet the most since the DotCom bubble, while its credit default swaps soar to levels seen during the 2008 Lehman crisis and real estate crash
  - Zero Hedge, 11 December 2025

• Warnings of higher inflation don't come much clearer than this. Falling USA and global bond prices (higher yields to compensate for higher inflation) together with rallying commodities are a clear sign the market is anticipating a structural rise in inflation.
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 11 December 2025

• The Federal Reserve to resume net asset purchases with $40 billion in securities this month. The Federal Reserve is ready to once more expand its balance sheet by buying short-term Treasury securities, aiming to head off bouts of pressure in overnight lending markets that are critical to the broader financial system.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 11 December 2025

• The Treasury Bond market is not ready for much higher bond yields. The market is not positioned for higher Treasury Bond yields, leaving any further selloff in Treasuries exposed to an overhang of longs closing out.
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 08 December 2025

• New all-time-highs predicted for gold, as explosive seasonality meets surging yields of Nihon's government bonds. Gold typically squeezes higher into year-end, and that momentum often continues through January and February.
  - Zero Hedge, 05 December 2025

• Rising commodities suggest there is still an inflation problem. Commodities have broken out of their three-year range, signaling there are still global inflation pressures not fully priced in by Treasury yields.
  - Zero Hedge, 03 December 2025

• Bank of Nihon faces a policy dilemma as government bond yields continue to rise to new highs. On Thursday, yield on the benchmark 10-year JGBs hit a high of 1.917%, surging to their strongest level since 2007. The bank faces a stark choice: sticking with its policy of raising rates and risking even higher yields and further slowing an already sagging economy, or holding, even cutting rates to support growth that could accelerate inflation further.
  - Versant's CNBC, 03 December 2025

• Superlong term government bond yields in Nihon continue to increase as interest rate increase bets firm. Inflation has been persistently high in Nihon in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, reversing decades of benign price pressures.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 03 December 2025

• How the internationalization of the yuan and yuan-dedominated bonds is helping to close the finance gap for fighting climate change and global heating
  - Alibaba's South China Morning Post, 03 December 2025

• Evergrand-er: the property market in Zhōngguó on verge of fresh collapse as Evergrande Vanke bonds implode
  - Zero Hedge, 02 December 2025

• Why bonds won't protect you from the AI bubble. As more debt is issued to fund AI build-outs, investors need to consider whether they really are diversified.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 02 December 2025

• Famed short seller Jim Chanos sees risks in growing debt market backed by Nvidia's AI chips: "There are going to be debt defaults."
  - Apollo Global's Yahoo Finance, 01 December 2025

• Bank of Nihon Governor Kazuo Ueda sent the clearest hint yet that his board might increase interest rates soon. Government bonds slumped, with the two-year yield rising to its highest level since 2008, while yields on five-year and benchmark 10-year bonds climbed at least 6.5 basis points each to 1.375% and 1.87%, respectively. The yen rose as much as 0.5% to 155.4 against the dollar.
  - Zero Hedge, 01 December 2025

• The prospect of rise of interest rates in Nihon spills into financial markets in the USA. Yields on government debt rose around the world, and Nion's 10-year government bond closed at its highest yield since June 2008. USA stocks fell, with the S&P 500 down 0.5%.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 01 December 2025

• Cryptocurrencies crushed by triple-whammy overnight. Bank of Nihon hawks trump Fed doves; 'selling' fears for shares of Strategy; and renewed Zhōngguó ban anxiety - all pushed down cryptocurrency prices
  - Zero Hedge, 01 December 2025

• A flood of AI bonds adds to pressure on financial markets. Prices of newly issued bonds have slid, adding to investors' anxieties about stock valuations.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 24 November 2025

• How the economy of the USA became addicted to AI spending. Growth has been bolstered by data-center investment and stock-market wealth. A reversal could raise the risk of recession. [KM: yes, but the rich would have already made more riches]
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 24 November 2025

• Bond markets have the biggest economies in Europe in a bind. Why it is a warning for Trump. The government of the UK has been struggling to plug a fiscal hole, shying away from both tax hikes and spending cuts.
  - Barron's, 22 November 2025

• "The world's financial markets had long gorged themselves on Nihon's multidecade era of ultralow interest rates and super-sized [quantitative easing]. Western politicians in particular should quiver with fear as Nihon turns off the liquidity tap that has in effect suppressed Western bond yields below levels that their bloated fiscal deficits justify."
  - Barron's, 22 November 2025

• Yields on USA Treasury Bonds go increase (and thus prices decrease) if more turmoil in Nihon causes people and companies in Nihon, the biggest buyer of Treasury Bonds, to sell the bonds and bring the money back to Nihon
  - Murdoch's MarketWatch, 21 November 2025

• Treasury Bond yields decline after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams offered some hope to investors that the Fed may lower its key interest rate at its final meeting of 2025 next month
  - Zero Hedge, 21 November 2025

• Treasury Bond yields decline after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams offered some hope to investors that the Fed may lower its key interest rate at its final meeting of 2025 next month
  - Versant's CNBC, 21 November 2025

• All hell breaks loose in Nihon as the Yen and government bonds crash ahead of gigantic, debt-busting stimulus
  - Zero Hedge, 21 November 2025

• Jeffrey Gundlach, the 'bond king', warns of the next financial crisis: "It (private credit) has the same trappings as subprime mortgage repackaging in 2006". [KM: a double-bubble - private credit and AI which is borrowing as well]
  - Jiaravanon's Fortune, 18 November 2025

• Government bond yields in Nihon soar to a record high, probably blocking any additional (inflationary) government stimulus, just as the economy implodes amid an escalating clash with Zhōngguó
  - Zero Hedge, 18 November 2025

• Navigating the curve: the allure and risks of long-dated USA Treasury Bonds. In a world of financial repression, an opportunity to lock in positive real yields at 2-2.5% is worth considering. But, it is not a slam dunk.
  - Zero Hedge, 18 November 2025

• Bitcoin and oil decline in price, and bonds and gold prices increase, as AI [bubble] angst accelerates
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 12 November 2025

• Quantitative easing (moneyprinting bond buying) is coming: the 2008 roots of socialist Fed dominance. Here we go again. The overnight funding markets are showing signs of stress, and the scent of QE is in the air.
  - Zero Hedge, 12 November 2025

• Inflation-protected bonds fail an important test: they do not help when inflation is high. TIPS perform best if you get in when inflation is low, research finds.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 10 November 2025

• Michael Hartnett: the AI bubble "watch out" metric just snapped. "You know that the Fed will be buying AI hyperscaler bonds when they do QE/moneyprinting/bond-buying - [KM: the socialist bailout that will make rich AI companies richer]
  - Zero Hedge, 09 November 2025

• Zhōngguó is competing more strongly with the USA in the global bonds market. It just sold $118 billion in bonds, subscribed 30-times over, a similar amount to a recent bond offering by the USA
  - Zero Hedge, 06 November 2025

• Treasury Bond yields plunge after private tracker shows that the USA lost 9,000 jobs in October, driven by government collapse.
  - Zero Hedge, 06 November 2025

• The Securities and Exchange Commission has been scrutinizing Egan-Jones Ratings, delving into the business practices of a leader in the fast-growing market for private-credit ratings. According to the report, SEC enforcement attorneys are "looking into whether the firm and some of its senior executives have exerted improper commercial influence on its ratings procedures, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing the ongoing probe."
  - Zero Hedge, 06 November 2025

• Treasury Bond yields plunge after private tracker shows that the USA lost 9,000 jobs in October, driven by government collapse.
  - Zero Hedge, 06 November 2025

• Stocks rebound to session highs after soaring corporate layoffs increase odds of an interest rate reduction in December [the market's favorite 'cocaine']
  - Zero Hedge, 06 November 2025

• Treasury Bond yields rise, odds that the Fed will reduce interest rates decline, as the ISM Services survey signals inflationl fears
  - Zero Hedge, 05 November 2025

• Treasury Bond yields rise, odds that the Fed will reduce interest rates decline, as the ISM Services survey signals inflationl fears
  - Zero Hedge, 05 November 2025

• The Treasury Department's borrowing plans could lower the 10-year Treasury note yield by a third of a percentage point over the medium term. Increasing the share of Treasury bills in federal financing is seen as "backdoor quantitative easing [moneyprinting]" by BofA strategists, similar to the Fed's quantitative easing. Tether, a stablecoin issuer, holds approximately 2% of the total Treasury bill supply, making it a significant nonsovereign holder.
  - Barron's, 01 November 2025

• Editorial: the Federal Reserve is 'driving in a fog'. Powell hints at no interest rate reduction in December, but why reduce interest rates this week?
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 29 October 2025

• The Federal Reserve reduces interest rates by 0.25%, and ends it quantitative tightening (bond selling)
  - Zero Hedge, 29 October 2025

• The Federal Reserve reduces interest rates by 0.25%, and ends it quantitative tightening (bond selling)
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 29 October 2025

• What the Federal Reserve's interest rate reduction by 0.25% means for credit cards, mortgages, auto loans, student debt and savings accounts
  - Versant's CNBC, 29 October 2025

• The Treasury Bond yield curve is signaling a surfeit of Fed easing in the pipeline, which will be amplified as the Fed brings an end to QT (its bond selling), and Zhōngguó continues to pump liquidity into the global monetary system.
  - CNBC (locked), 28 October 2025

• Jamaica will probably be able to collect on the $150 million 'catastrophe' bond that it issued in 2024, due to the destructive impact of Hurricane Melissa
  - Zero Hedge, 28 October 2025

• Jamaica will probably be able to collect on the $150 million 'catastrophe' bond that it issued in 2024, due to the destructive impact of Hurricane Melissa
  - Versant's CNBC, 28 October 2025

• For several years, bond prices have been lurching like an out-of-control roller coaster, and holders of bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds have endured an exceptionally volatile ride
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 26 October 2025

• If President Javier Milei can keep his Peronist opponents from a veto-proof supermajority in upcoming elections, Argentine sovereign bonds, trading at similar spreads to Ukraine's bonds, could look like a buy again
  - Barron's, 25 October 2025

• The Pimco Multisector Bond Active ETF returns 5.9% pretty steadily for the last three years
  - Barron's, 25 October 2025

• Bank of America warns of devastating fallout as the AI debt bubble is pushed to the limit with record Oracle and junk bond deals. "Banks would be exposed to this directly through their credit exposures to AI companies, as well as indirectly through their provision of loans and credit facilities to private credit funds and other financial institutions."
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 24 October 2025

• Quantitative tightening (socialist bond selling by the Fed) is over: Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan predict the Federal Reserve flipping as reserves decline below $3 trillion
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 24 October 2025

• The national debt of the USA rises above $38 trillion, after the fastest accumulation of $1 trillion of new debt outside of the Covid pandemic
  - Associated Press, 23 October 2025

• USA Treasury Bond yields declined on Tuesday, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling further from the 4% threshold, as investors grew optimistic on a resolution on the ongoing USA government shutdown.
  - Versant's CNBC, 21 October 2025

• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is nearing a point where it will stop reducing the size of its bond holdings, but gave no long-run indication of where interest rates are heading.
  - Versant's CNBC, 14 October 2025

• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is nearing a point where it will stop reducing the size of its bond holdings, but gave no long-run indication of where interest rates are heading.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 14 October 2025

• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is nearing a point where it will stop reducing the size of its bond holdings, but gave no long-run indication of where interest rates are heading.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 14 October 2025

• Central banks now hold more gold in their reserves than US Treasury Bonds
  - Zero Hedge, 10 October 2025

• The 'debasement' trade pushes the price of silver above $50 for the first time since the 1980s silver squeeze by the Hunt brothers. Also, a shortage of freely available silver in the key London market has supported prices, while also pushing up the cost of borrowing the metal sharply.
  - Zero Hedge, 09 October 2025

• While gold 'screams' debasement of the USA dollar because of inflation, the bond market's best guess at long-term inflation is basically unchanged.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 09 October 2025

• The rally in gold prices points to eroding faith in central banks worldwide. In Nihon, as in the USA, a new leader wants the central bank to make government debt more bearable, which could feed inflation.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 09 October 2025

• Goldman Sachs predicts that because of volatility in Nihon's longer-dated government bonds, pushing up long-term government bond yields, which will affect bonds around the world. For every 0.1% increase in bond yields in Nihon, investors can expect around 0.2% to 0.3% increases on government bond yields in the USA, Deutschland and the United Kingdom.
  - Bloomberg, 06 October 2025

• Gold loves increasing yields offered by the government bonds of Nihon
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 06 October 2025

• Why corporate bonds are much in demand. The yield premium offered by investment-grade bonds has shrunk to an almost three-decade low.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 06 October 2025

• "Not one market moved notably on the USA government shut down news... except for one" - bitcoin. The USA dollar index barely budged on the shutdown news. The Swiss franc strengthened slightly, and the yen as well. Treasury Bond prices moved imperceptibly higher.
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 05 October 2025

• Morgan Stanley's 3 lessons from the shocking collapse of First Brands. The question is whether First Brands' bankruptcy is an isolated, idiosyncratic event - driven by company-specific operational or capital structure issues - or an early warning of fragility lurking beneath the surface of the financial markets.
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 05 October 2025

• Foreign buyers are backing USA Treasury Bonds. This dependency comes with strings attached. With hedge funds and other investors becoming more dominant, this haven might not be quite as safe as it used to be.
  - Barron's, 04 October 2025

• Publicly-traded corporate bonds are booming. Why is private credit flashing distress? The markets for bank loans, private credit, and credit derivatives have shown symptoms of distress.
  - Barron's, 04 October 2025

• In July this year, the Mexican government did something no other government had ever done. It used a corporate debt tool to reduce the massive debt pile of state-owned energy major Pemex. Now, others are using this as a template for their struggling state entities. In July, the government of México issued $12 billion worth of something called P-Caps (much used by insurance companies). Normally used in corporate circles, P-Caps, or pre-capitalized securities, allow a borrower access to debt funding in case of need but without being included in its balance sheet. The securities sit in a trust to keep them separate from the company's liabilities and avoid having them affect its credit rating.
  - OilPrice.com, 01 October 2025

• Morgan Stanley explains why shape of the yield curve is more important than timing of interest rate reductions by the Fed
  - Zero Hedge, 28 September 2025

• Gold and silver prices soar, and stock and bond prices pushed down, and cryptocurrencies crash
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 25 September 2025

• An atrocious, tailing auction for 7-year Treasury Bonds, as foreign demand plummets
  - Zero Hedge, 25 September 2025

• Money is flowing into USA financial stocks. Financials is the USA equity sector seeing the most inflows, with anticipated deregulation and expectations of steeper yield curve likely drivers.
  - Zero Hedge, 24 September 2025

• After Argentina recently entered a "panic mode" (according to its president), the stock market and Argentine peso soared in value, after the USA offered financial support that includes direct currency purchases as well as swap lines and purchases of dollar-denominated government debt
  - Zero Hedge, 22 September 2025

• After Argentina recently entered a "panic mode" (according to its president), the stock market and Argentine peso soared in value, after the USA offered financial support that includes direct currency purchases as well as swap lines and purchases of dollar-denominated government debt
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 22 September 2025

• Government bond yields rise, and the pound drops, after the government of the United Kingdom reported that government borrowing in August was higher than expected to cover the budget deficit
  - Zero Hedge, 19 September 2025

• 10-year Treasury Bond yields hits 2-week high despite a Fed rate reduction of 0.25% this week
  - Versant's CNBC, 19 September 2025

• After 3 stellar coupon auctions last week, with 10Y yields trading effectively at the lowest level since last October (excluding the Liberation Day basis trade freak out) , and with the Fed set to cut by at least 25bps, there was little anxiety ahead of today's 20Y coupon auction. And with good reason: moments ago the day's coupon auction, a reopening of the 19-Year, 11-Month cusip UN6, went without a glitch in what was a very solid auction.
  - Zero Hedge, 16 September 2025

• Gold prices soar to a new record high ahead of the Fed meeting, with bonds and stock prices also pushed up
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 15 September 2025

• After Fitch downgrades the credit rating of France from AA- to A+, the cost of borrowing for France when selling government bonds rises
  - Versant's CNBC, 15 September 2025

• After Fitch downgrades the credit rating of France from AA- to A+, the cost of borrowing for France when selling government bonds rises
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 15 September 2025

• While the AI-bubbled stock market is rising to new highs [KM: on the wet dreams of non-paid AI profitting from replacing paid-humans], the decline in Treasury Bond yields shows markets are adjusting to the reality of a weaker-than-expected job market and expectations for potentially subdued economic growth. "The bond market is acknowledging that job creation, a powerful engine of the US economy, is decelerating." The 10-year Treasury Bond yield has dropped from 4.27% to 4% in two weeks.
  - Warner Brothers CNN, 14 September 2025

• 159,500,000 - ANZ Group on Monday agreed to pay A$240 million ($159.5 million), the Australian corporate regulator's largest-ever penalties against a single entity, following systemic failures ranging from acting "unconscionably" in a government bond deal to charging deceased customers
  - Thomson's Reuters, 14 September 2025

• Emerging market debt is looking better as the bond market changes. Some managers see bond opportunities in Turkey, Guatemala, Paraguay, México and Malaysia.
  - Barron's, 13 September 2025

• A collapse in the value of municipal bond fund (down 50% in 2 days) exposes the danger of investing in junk municipal bonds
  - Bloomberg, 12 September 2025

• 10-year Treasury Bond yield falls to 4% as traders assess inflation data
  - Versant's CNBC, 11 September 2025

• The European Central Bank does not change interest rates, as the fallout lingers from Trump's tax/tariff trade war
  - Versant's CNBC, 11 September 2025

• The European Central Bank does not change interest rates, as the fallout lingers from Trump's tax/tariff trade war
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 11 September 2025

• The outperformance of global corporate bonds compared to national bonds indicates growing problems with national debts around the world
  - Zero Hedge, 10 September 2025

• From dollars to dinars: bond vigilantes see a "local pivot" to emerging market debt. The evolution of EMs moving away from being largely dependent on the dollar to being able to better utilise local currency markets highlights a pivotal shift.
  - Zero Hedge, 10 September 2025

• Alibaba to raise $3.2 billion via convertible bond to fund cloud growth
  - Thomson's Reuters, 10 September 2025

• "A clear defeat": government bonds and the peso of Argentina plunge after President Milei routed in Buenos Aires elections (the leftist Peronistas won 47% of the vote, Milei's Libertad Avanza won 34%). Dollar notes due 2035, among the most traded, slid 5.56 cents to 56.09, pushing yields to 12.6% and leading losses across emerging markets. "The government engineered a sharp recession with high rates to defend the peso, but Buenos Aires voters are saying jobs matter more than squeezing out the last bit of inflation.".
  - Zero Hedge, 08 September 2025

• The prospect of falling interest rates has boosted the demand investors have for corporate debt, with companies including Merck joining in a wave of borrowing through bond sales
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 08 September 2025

• From mortgages to stocks, how higher bond yields for long-term Treasury Bonds hit wider markets
  - Versant's CNBC, 06 September 2025

• Stablecoins are entering a new phase, shifting from simple payment rails to yield-bearing, user-centric financial instruments, a threat to banks
  - Bering Capital's Benzinga, 05 September 2025

• 10-year Treasury Bond yields decline to lowest level since April after weaker-than-expected jobs report
  - Warner Brothers CNN, 05 September 2025

• The Financial Times argues that income from Trump's taxes/tariffs (i.e., taxes on USA citizens and companies) are now seen as a crucial income stream that offsets the costs of the Big Beautiful Bill, and investors are now counting on hundreds of billions of dollars raised by the remaining tariffs to offset Trump's tax cuts [for the rich] and to constrain USA borrowing. If the Supreme Court rules that taxes/tariffs unconstitutional, worried investors might sell USA Bonds, pushing up yields, and making future debt more expensive.
  - Zero Hedge, 04 September 2025

• A steepening of bond yield curves around the world betrays investor uneasiness with massive government borrowing
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 03 September 2025

• Heavily indebted governments are increasingly vulnerable to bond vigilantes
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 03 September 2025

• Global long-term bond yields are surging, with USA 30-year Treasury Bonds near 5% and UK government bonds above 5.7%, as investors grow wary of mounting debt (to make the rich richer) and political pressure on central banks (to lower interest rates to make the rich richer). Safe-haven gold has hit a record $3,537, while economists told Fortune the bond market "can't be primaried", underscoring that investors will pull back if fiscal credibility deteriorates. "Bond investors are not afraid of being bullied by Trump if the debt numbers don't add up."
  - Jiaravanon's Fortune, 03 September 2025

• 30-year Treasury yield tops 5% briefly as traders deal with uncertainty about Trump's tax/tariff policies, and threats to the independence of the Fed
  - Versant's CNBC, 03 September 2025

• Is Trump's Treasury Department's socialist industrial policy kindling a wildfire in global bond markets? The USA Treasury's strategy of repressing bond volatility is creating the potential for an abrupt move higher in the measure, taking yields and the curve with it.
  - Zero Hedge, 02 September 2025

• The yield on long-dated UK bonds rose to the highest since 1998, as investors' confidence in the Starmer government is crushed amid concerns over the fiscal outlook
  - Zero Hedge, 02 September 2025

• The yield on long-dated UK bonds rose to the highest since 1998, as investors' confidence in the Starmer government is crushed amid concerns over the fiscal outlook
  - Bloomberg, 02 September 2025

• Junk bonds are very popular this summer. Investors are piling back into funds that buy junk-rated corporate bonds and loans, despite elevated default rates.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 11 July 2025

• Treasury Bond yields rise on the possibility of the USA having to refund Trump's taxes/tariff monies collected, with the 30-year Bond yield rising above 4.98%
  - Versant's CNBC, 11 July 2025

• Rates on longer-dated government bonds in Nihon have risen rapidly, fueling worry that investors in Nihon may move away from holding USA Treasury Bonds and buy more of their own government's bonds. The worry for the USA? At some point, yields could be high enough that institutions in Nihon sell USA government bonds to raise funds to buy bonds issued by Nihon. Investors in Nihon are the biggest foreign investors in Treasury Bonds, holding slightly over $1 trillion worth of USA debt.
  - Barron's, 01 September 2025

• The pension system for the Netherlands is planning to sell some of its $2.2 trillion portfolio of European bonds (to better handle coming retirements). The planning and initial sales are already pushing up yields on longer-dated bonds and traders are positioning for volatility in the euro swaps market, which the funds use for hedging. Things could become more extreme at the turn of the year, when a large tranche of funds are set to transition, due to lower liquidity at that time.
  - Bloomberg, 01 September 2025

• Treasury Bond yields don't tell the full story of a market losing faith in the Federal Reserve. The 10s30s curve is likely to prove a much better gauge of fiscal-dominance risks than nearer-term curves such as the 2s10s, and thus where better bond hedges will be found.
  - Zero Hedge, 29 August 2025

• The debt crisis in Sri Lanka demonstrates how debt is devouring the Global South. From Africa to Asia to Latin America, billions go hungry while creditors profit. To meet IMF targets, he Sri Lankan government has introduced sweeping austerity measures. Where else will that surplus come from if not from the money pots of the poor? Bankers may welcome this austerity, but for those living and working in rural areas and coastal villages, it spells hardship and fear. The imbalances within the debt restructuring program prioritize investor profit over the public interest, shrinking the fiscal space needed to rebuild essential services.
  - Al Jazeera, 29 August 2025

• Trump's attempts to seize control of the Federal Reserve risk ruining a pillar of the global economy. Economists warn it could lead to higher inflation and government borrowing costs.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 27 August 2025

• Financial markets have not yet grappled with the implications of Trump seizing control of the Federal Reserve
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 27 August 2025

• Editorial: Trump wants to seize control of the Federal Reserve. He may succeed, but the country will live to regret it.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 27 August 2025

• Long-term Treasury Bond yields continue to rise as the repeatedly-bankrupt authoritarian Trump tries to seize control of the Federal Reserve. Investors are worried that while a Trump-controlled Fed might lower short-term borrowing rates, longer-term yields could rise if the central bank becomes less attentive to fighting inflation.
  - Versant's CNBC, 27 August 2025

• The authoritarian Trump's attempts to seize control of the Fed is pushing up the interest rates that matter most to consumers
  - Versant's CNBC, 27 August 2025

• Fears of a collapse of the government of France send its borrowing costs soaring. France, a cornerstone economy in Europe, is rapidly becoming one of its weakest links as a political and debt crisis loom.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 27 August 2025

• Editorial: France heads for a fiscal crackup. Politicians prefer serial political crises over any economic reform.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 27 August 2025

• Investors including Nuveen and BlackRock that hold Puerto Rico's $8.3 billion in defaulted power revenue bonds terminated a previous restructuring agreement and pledged to cooperate with other creditors on any new deal. Bondholders are uniting to seek more favorable terms after Trump authorized his administration to recently fire most members of the oversight board managing the finances of Puerto Rico.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 27 August 2025

• Government bonds and stock prices in France decline, as the government risks a new collapse in weeks
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 26 August 2025

• Short-term Treasury bond yields fall, while long-term yields rise, after Trump fires Fed governor Lisa Cook, a Black American woman, the first instance of a president firing a central bank governor in the 111-year history of the Fed. Cook has not been charged with any wrongdoing. It is unclear whether the authoritarian Trump has the legal authority to fire Cook over allegations of fraud.
  - Versant's CNBC, 26 August 2025

• She says he has no authority, as Trump fires Fed governor Lisa Cook, a Black American woman, the first instance of a president firing a central bank governor in the 111-year history of the Fed. Cook has not been charged with any wrongdoing. It is unclear whether the authoritarian Trump has the legal authority to fire Cook over allegations of fraud.
  - Versant's CNBC, 26 August 2025

• She says he has no authority, as Trump fires Fed governor Lisa Cook, a Black American woman, the first instance of a president firing a central bank governor in the 111-year history of the Fed. Cook has not been charged with any wrongdoing. It is unclear whether the authoritarian Trump has the legal authority to fire Cook over allegations of fraud.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 26 August 2025

• The first Black woman executive at the Federal Reserve tells Trump ... to shove it, as Trump fires Fed governor Lisa Cook, a Black American woman, the first instance of a president firing a central bank governor in the 111-year history of the Fed. Cook has not been charged with any wrongdoing. It is unclear whether the authoritarian Trump has the legal authority to fire Cook over allegations of fraud.
  - The Daily Beast, 26 August 2025

• Why famed strategist Albert Edwards is warning that the government Treasury Bond market could cause a market crash, as 10-year Treasury Bond yields rise to, and could be greater than, SP500 dividend yields
  - Business Insider, 23 August 2025

• A suggestion of an increase in interest rates in September pushes up the price of gold and bonds (and thus yields down), pushes down the USA dollar, while sending up stock indexes by about 2%
  - Zero Hedge, 22 August 2025

• Hartnett: raise allocations to gold and crypto because bond yield curve control is coming
  - Zero Hedge, 18 August 2025

• The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index jumped 0.9% to close at 3,728 on Monday, its strongest finish since August 2015
  - Bloomberg, 18 August 2025

• Researchers from the Bank of Zhōngguó, and from others in Zhōngguó, are proposing that Zhōngguó gradually educe its exposure to US dollar assets as the national debt of the USA continues to increase, reigniting persistent worries over the long-term sustainability of an investment formerly considered rock solid. "Although US Treasuries have not yet reached the default threshold, their expansion is unsustainable."
  - Alibaba's South China Morning Post, 16 August 2025

• Bitcoin and gold dumped as a hot PPI prompts plunge in bonds
  - Zero Hedge, 15 August 2025

• Municipal bonds may not remain this cheap for long. A steady increase in municipal-bond supply, coupled with the survival of their tax benefit in Trump's spending bill, is making the securities more attractive.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 12 August 2025

• Forget about bond ratings. A bigger risk is that investors need to pay attention to the length of time to maturity.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 11 August 2025

• The Social Security trust funds are projected to run out about six months earlier than previously estimated, according to a new analysis from the chief actuary of the trust funds. The combined Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) funds are now expected to be depleted in the first quarter of 2034, rather than the third quarter of that year as in the most recent trustees' report. The shift is due to Trump's new tax/spending law to make the rich richer.
  - Zero Hedge, 08 August 2025

• The USA under Trump just issued a record-breaking $100 billion in four-week Treasury Bonds - short-term debt tools typically reserved for emergencies. But this is not a one-time event. Treasury officials are calling the "new norm". Why? Because the USA can't afford to pay off its maturing debt. Rolling it over is the only option. But as foreign demand wanes and money market funds get stretched, even that strategy is failing.
  - Zero Hedge, 07 August 2025

• Treasury Bond yields spike after a very ugly, tailing auction of 30-year Treasury Bonds, increasing fears of a recession
  - Zero Hedge, 07 August 2025

• $300,000,000 - UBS Group agreed to pay $300 million to settle outstanding obligations that Credit Suisse had committed to in a deal with the Justice Department over bonds backed by mortgages sold before the 2008 financial crisis
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 05 August 2025

• Treasury Bond yields decline as much as 0.2%, after a horrible jobs report
  - Versant's CNBC, 01 August 2025

• Weaker than expected job gains combined with rising unemployment rates and massively negative revisions have sent rate-cut odds soaring with September now priced around 75%
  - Zero Hedge, 01 August 2025

• Trump's Treasury Department to fund the government's huge deficits, will rely on sales of more expensive short-term Treasury Bonds which rely on stablecoin purchases of Treasury Bonds to keep bond yields lower.
  - Zero Hedge, 30 July 2025

• The Treasury Department's quarterly refunding (via bond sales) is becoming as/more important than the Federal Reserves interest rate setting
  - Zero Hedge, 30 July 2025

• Short-term USA Treasury Bond yields jump 0.06% to 0.08% during big outflows from stablecoin funds, and fall when there are large purchases of stablecoins by these funds
  - TheStreet, 28 July 2025

• Pop goes the massive deficit problem of the USA: the warning signs are all there that the levels of debt are unmanageable and destructive
  - The Hill, 28 July 2025

• The Treasury Department increase its Treasury Bond sales from $554 billion to $1 trillion in Q3 of 2025 to replenish the cash balances of the federal government
  - Zero Hedge, 28 July 2025

• An auction of USA 5-year Treasury Bonds sees lowest foreign demand in 5 years. A sharp shift in sentiment, from a solid 2Y auction this morning to a very ugly 5Y this afternoon.
  - Zero Hedge, 28 July 2025

• The European disease: Deutschland enters the 'debt spiral', as it national budget deficits increase
  - Zero Hedge, 28 July 2025

• Investors see few alternatives to USA Treasury Bonds. Could Europe issue one? As Trump's chaotic economic policies provoke questions about the stability of the USA, a proposal for countries in Europe to issue joint debt has drawn attention.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 28 July 2025

• The more Trump pressures the Fed, the less likely he obtains lower interest rates. If the president thinks the Fed is hard to deal with, wait until he tries to negotiate with the bond market.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 28 July 2025

• Investors are showing signs of pulling money out of government bonds and plowing it into debt sold by companies in the USA and Europe. As the national debt of the USA worsens, hurt by tax cuts and rising interest costs, the government may look to borrow more, and company debt may be the safer option.
  - Bloomberg, 26 July 2025

• It is hard to determine the value of junk (high-risk) bonds. Many such bond prices are "written in pencil, not pen".
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 21 July 2025

• Hartnett: the best way to tell if we are in another stock bubble: "When stocks are rising and ignoring a rise in inflation expectations & bond yields to new highs."
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 20 July 2025

• Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi sounds a "red alarm" on the housing market and says that homebuilders are "giving up", and will continue to do so (along with declining home prices) until mortgage rates are reduced
  - Jiaravanon's Fortune, 20 July 2025

• Emerging-market borrowers are borrowing more in the euro bond market at the fastest pace in over a decade, taking advantage of the rising demand for diversification away from the USA dollar, thanks to Trump's tax/tariff trade wars and hostility.
  - Bloomberg, 20 July 2025

• Zhōngguó reduces its holdings of USA Treasury Bonds to the lowest level since 2009
  - Versant's CNBC, 18 July 2025

• The market cap of Tether's USDt, the world's largest stablecoin, has surpassed $160 billion for the first time
  - CoinTelegraph, 17 July 2025

• XRP is about to hit $200B market cap for first time; price nears record
  - CoinTelegraph, 17 July 2025

• Trump wants lower interest rates, so threatens the Fed. But firing popular Fed Chair Powell could push interest rates higher. Investors might want higher yields on long-term Treasury bonds if Trump undermines the independence of the Fed.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 17 July 2025

• The authoritarian Trump causes much volatility in the markets, after his latest unconstitutional threat to fire Fed Chair Powell
  - Zero Hedge, 16 July 2025

• Government bond yields in Nihon surge, signaling increased fiscal fears as election looms. The 20-year yield on Japanese government bonds hit their highest level since November 1999.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 16 July 2025

• Issuance of junk bonds in the European Union rose to a record high in June of $27 billion
  - Barron's, 12 July 2025

• In an ominous sign, sellers are vanishing as stocks in the USA rise to record highs. This could cause a short-term moderate setback.
  - Bloomberg, 11 July 2025

• The ICE BofA MOVE Index, a volatility measure for USA Treasury Bonds, falls to a 3+ year low
  - Bloomberg, 11 July 2025

• The state of California, to balance budgets, is considering the nonpayment for two years of the state's unfunded actuarial accrued liability for retiree medical benefits, an $85 billion debt. This will cause the debt to increase, requiring higher payments in the future.
  - Zero Hedge, 10 July 2025

• The USA needs a weaker dollar to boost exports without undermining global appetite for USA Treasury Bonds. Stablecoins make that balancing act possible. The criminalization of the USA national debt.
  - Zero Hedge, 10 July 2025

• USA Treasury Bonds, being overbought, have a bigger problem than Trump's taxes/tariffs. The only plausible salvation for bonds is a recession.
  - Zero Hedge, 10 July 2025

• BNY Mellon will have custody of Ripple's new stablecoin as big banks and financial institutions become more involved with cryptocurrencies
  - Versant's CNBC, 09 July 2025

• Will high rice prices in Nihon cause huge problems for the government, adding to inflation and a strong yen, could hurt government bonds of Nihon
  - Zero Hedge, 08 July 2025

• Long-dated government bond yields around the world are rising sharply
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 08 July 2025

• Why Nicolai Tangen, the CEO of Norway's sovereign fund (the world's largest at $2.8 trillion), is worried about the rising national debt of the USA
  - Apollo Global's Yahoo Finance, 07 July 2025

• France is trapped in a debt spiral. The president of the French Court of Auditors argues that the increasing national debt is "out of control", and if the government doesn't do something, the bond markets will.
  - Zero Hedge, 06 July 2025

• The Republican's new tax/spending law, to make the rich richer, the poor poorer, and the environment worse, while increasing the national debt by trillions, is a dangerous mixture of question supply-side economic promises and Trump's campaign lies to the non-rich
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 04 July 2025

• Financial companies on Wall Street worry as trillions of new national debt on top of tens of trillions of existing debt become the default financial mode of the government. Trump's new tax/spending law will greatly worsen the national debt - with no national emergency (a war, Covid pandemic) requiring reckless spending.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 04 July 2025

• How Christian Republicans worsened democracy in passing Trump's new tax/spending law: the law lacked a clear and inspired purpose; it supplanted the expertise of congressional committees for the whims of holdouts and the president; and it relied on the make-or-break reconciliation mechanism that limits the ability to write sound policy. This Congress has denied its Legislative powers to become puppets of Trump, partly out of fear of this 'Christian' president.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 04 July 2025

• 10 charts that show how bad Trump's new tax/spending law is for the non-rich and the environment
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 04 July 2025

• Republicans in the House join those in the Senate and pass Trump's tax/spending law which will increase the national debt by trillions to make the rich richer while helping Zhōngguó totally control the renewable energy industry
  - Versant's CNBC, 04 July 2025

• The top five changes for the wealthy (to become richer) in Trump's new "big beautiful bill". These moneychangers will be happy.
  - Versant's CNBC, 04 July 2025

• Trump's new tax/spending law give the very rich, the economically top 1% of people in the USA, the biggest tax cuts in mostly Republican states
  - Versant's CNBC, 04 July 2025

• Problems in the recent favorable jobs report, including wage growth slowing, unemployment rising for Black Americans, employees working fewer hours and manufacturing employment down a bit
  - Warner Brothers CNN, 03 July 2025

• Odds of the Fed reducing interest rates in July decline, after a strong jobs report for June, and Republicans passing a new law that will increase the national debt by trillions
  - Apollo Global's Yahoo Finance, 03 July 2025

• One way Trump intends to seize control of the independent Federal Reserve. The Treasury Department will fund more of the national debt with sales of short-term Treasury Bonds, pushing up yields for long-term Treasury Bonds and further weakening the USA dollar.
  - Zero Hedge (locked), 03 July 2025

• After the UK Finance Minister, Rachel Reeves, is seen crying in Parliament (for some reason), UK bond yields rise and the British pound loses value compared to the USA dollar and euro
  - Versant's CNBC, 03 July 2025

• UK bond yields rise and the British pound loses value compared to the USA dollar and euro, after the UK government announces that will not implement a plan to reduce welfare spending
  - Versant's CNBC, 03 July 2025

• The Federal Reserve has 'hidden' accumulated losses of $231 billion, due in part to its crime of paying over $400 billion to banks in interest on their deposits held at the bank from 2022 to 2024. It can do so by using the scam of non-GAAP accounting. This risks taxpayers having to pay the debt. [KM: The rich get richer.]
  - Law & Liberty, 02 July 2025

• An increasingly stressed Treasury Bond market in the USA (coping with already high levels of USA national debt) will be further stressed if Trump's tax/spending proposed law is passed which will raise the national debt by trillions of more dollars
  - Zero Hedge, 01 July 2025

• With developing nations crushed by unaffordable borrowing ($8.7 trillion worth of debt), and the USA abandoning much of its foreign aid, leaders of some developing countries are arranging deals for debt forgiveness.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 01 July 2025

• One expert argues that world is approaching a 1929-like global depression, so it is a good time to buy gold, especially as central banks are buying more gold and fewer long-term USA Treasury Bonds
  - Birch Gold, 30 June 2025

• The Fed's recent change to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio could allow banks to hold trillions more in Treasury Bonds, which if they buy could push bond yields down
  - Zero Hedge, 30 June 2025

• It is not too late to buy gold, as central banks continue to buy gold, and currencies continue to weeken against gold prices
  - Von Greyerz Gold, 30 June 2025

• EchoStar is making more than $500 million in debt-interest payments that the network operator had delayed amid a regulatory review in the USA of its use of cellular and satellite spectrum licenses, but it also is holding off on another $114 million that is coming due
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 28 June 2025

• Barron's has long favored dividend-paying stocks for those seeking income. But bonds now deserve a hard look because they are so attractively priced. Year-to-date in 2025, USA bonds were about even with the SP500 as both were generating returns of close to 4%. The yield of the SP500 (the inverse of the P/E/ ratio) is now under 4%, similar to that of many bond yields, and of cash (which is saved in the form of Treasury bonds).
  - Barron's, 28 June 2025

• Commodity trading advisors (CTAs) are buying bonds, stocks, and gold, while selling USA dollars
  - Zero Hedge, 27 June 2025

• Tepid inflation, mixed economic data and signs that the Trump administration will limit longer-term debt sales are fueling optimism that this bond-market rally has legs, and that bond prices will continue to rise.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 26 June 2025

• Over 200 central banks have reportedly sold $48 billion in USA Treasury Bonds, amid concerns about the stability of the USA dollar under Trump's erratic economic policies
  - Bering Capital's Benzinga, 20 June 2025

• Stablecoin legislation will increase demand for Treasury Bonds - to a point. Issuers of digital currencies need Treasury bills for their reserves, but analysts say the consequences are uncertain.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 20 June 2025

• The stablecoin timebomb hidden in Trump's GENIUS act to regulate stablecoins. Stablecoins are the bastard child of parents seemingly at permanent odds with each other: the libertarian crypto community and statist dollar worshippers - very useful for criminal mafia types. Already, stablecoins account for around 80% of all cryptocurrency transactions. More use of Treasury Bond backed stablecoins will cause Treasury Bond yields to fall, causing banks to raise their interest rates to keep dollars in their banks. What happens if a stablecoin issued outside the United States crashes? And so the Genius Act is hard to criticize - if the intention is to maximize the threat of a financial meltdown. Essentially, it weaponises stablecoins to privatise money and effectively outsource dollar dominance to Trump-friendly authoritarian technology lords.
  - UnHerd, 19 June 2025

• Zhōngguó further reduced in April its holdings of USA Treasury Bonds to a 16-year-low, amidst Trump's tax/tariff trade war. Its holdings are the third largest, after those of Nihon and the United Kingdom.
  - Alibaba's South China Morning Post, 19 June 2025

• Gold prices have surged 30% so far in 2025, outpacing the yen, Swiss franc, and USA Treasurys Bonds. At the heart of the appeal of gold is its freedom from government liabilities.
  - Versant's CNBC, 17 June 2025

• Investors shun long-term USA Treasury Bonds as hopes fade for aggressive Fed interest rate reductions
  - Thomson's Reuters, 16 June 2025

• How the Federal Reserve fuels fiscal profligacy. The central bank is the largest holder of debt of the USA (its Treasury Bond holdings), giving it undue influence on the federal budget.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 16 June 2025

• Investors are buying lots of ETFs holding bonds issued in Zhōngguó, as deflation persists. Investors in Zhōngguó are flocking to ETFs that hold bonds, shifting away from equity ETFs as passive bets on fixed-income - and a slowing economy - become increasingly popular.
  - Zero Hedge, 15 June 2025

• These are the hottest bond ETFs this year - and for good reason with many offering 4% yields. Treasury-bill ETFs are rapidly gaining in popularity and challenging money-market funds and bank deposits as a place for retail investors to park cash.
  - Barron's, 14 June 2025

• Municipal bonds are still inexpensive. Here are some good muni bonds to buy.
  - Barron's, 14 June 2025

• Joe Davis, the global chief economist at Vanguard, predicts that bond yields could rise to 9% if the hyped-benefits of the AI [bubble] do not outweigh the costs of the deficit in coming years
  - Barron's, 14 June 2025

• The federal budget deficit of the USA rises to $316 billion in May, up 14% year-to-year, with the year-to-date deficit rising to $1.365 trillion. Surging financing costs were again a major contributor to fiscal issues, with interest on the $36.2 trillion debt topping $92 billion.
  - Versant's CNBC, 12 June 2025

• After a moderate CPI report on inflation is issued, odds that the Fed will have two interest rates reductions of 0.25%, stocks rise, bond yields fall, USA dollar declines, gold increases
  - Zero Hedge, 11 June 2025

• Treasury Bonds face several risks, not least from stubborn inflation. Longer-term yields will be unable to go down significantly, absent a recession, while inflation remains stubborn and ongoing fiscal risks deter Treasury Bond buyers.
  - Zero Hedge, 11 June 2025

• Momentum-trading meltdown quietly accelerates as bonds, bitcoin and gold prices don't change much
  - Zero Hedge, 10 June 2025

• Tough trade talks could lead Zhōngguó to threaten de-dollarization or sell USA Treasury Bonds (it owns about $1 trillion) to gain concessions from Washington.
  - Zero Hedge, 08 June 2025

• Investors seeking higher bond yields cause a $331 billion wave of emerging bond sales
  - Bloomberg, 08 June 2025

• Despite calling Shanghai and Hong Kong the 'twin engines' of finance for Zhōngguó, the actions of the government of Zhōngguó favor Hong Kong as the one true global funding hub for Zhōngguó.
  - Alibaba's South China Morning Post, 07 June 2025

• Bond ETFs to buy in a world of Trump-induced volatility
  - Barron's, 07 June 2025

• The government bond rally in Bharat may deepen as interest rate reductions loom
  - Bloomberg, 05 June 2025

• You can run from fiscal deficits, but you can't hide from the bond markets. The rise in longer-term US and developed-market bond yields risks becoming entrenched as fiscal largesse becomes a feature of economies, rather than a temporary bug.
  - Zero Hedge, 05 June 2025

• Treasury Bond yields and the USA dollar decline, as 'bad' jobs data sparks a surge in hopes that the Fed will reduce interest rates
  - Zero Hedge, 04 June 2025

• Treasury Bond yields and the USA dollar decline, as 'bad' jobs data sparks a surge in hopes that the Fed will reduce interest rates
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 04 June 2025

• Treasury Bond yields and the USA dollar decline, as 'bad' jobs data sparks a surge in hopes that the Fed will reduce interest rates
  - Bloomberg, 04 June 2025

• There are good reasons for the Treasury Bond yield curve to stay steep. The relentless steepening of the US yield curve is unlikely to reverse any time soon.
  - Zero Hedge, 04 June 2025

• Global investors have a new reason to reduce their purchases of USA Treasury Bonds. After hedging currency risk, foreign investors no longer make money buying America bonds that support America's great level of debt.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 04 June 2025

• A squabble over socialist control of the USA economy: since the Fed won't buy USA Treasury Bonds, the Treasury Department intervenes in the markets and buys $10 billion of short-term Treasury Bonds, the largest Treasury buyback in history
  - Zero Hedge, 03 June 2025

• Economist question the Republican's proposed tax law: why increase the national debt in good economic times? Huge deficits are already making bond investors nervous. Economists warn that could make it harder to respond to future crises.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 03 June 2025

• The Federal Reserve saw $1 trillion in unrealized losses on its bond holdings in 2024. The state of unrealized losses last year was due to "higher market interest rates across the yield curve" while partially offset by reduced Fed holdings of bonds. This was the third straight year of such trillion dollar losses. These paper losses do not affect monetary policy operations and are not an issue of note given that the Fed holds its bonds to maturity.
  - Thomson's Reuters, 03 June 2025

• Wall Street is sounding the alarm on the ever-increasing national debt of the USA. This time, it is worth listening to their warnings.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 03 June 2025

• Pension funds will not save the bond market. Higher yields on long-term bonds have helped many pensions derisk. Now pension funds' demand for bonds might be waning. Many pensions might be thinking not only of shifting out of riskier equities, but also out of the longest-term bonds and into more intermediate-dated ones as their pool of beneficiaries ages.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 02 June 2025

• The big, bad bond market could rerail the repeatedly-bankrupt Trump's proposed tax/spending law to make the richer richer. Trump wants to 'blow a hole' of $3 trillion in the federal budget of the USA. The bond market is saying "no way".
  - Vox, 02 June 2025

• Why a "decade of reckoning" is coming to the USA bond market and the management of the national debt of the USA. With all three credit rating agencies saying that there is a bit of risk with Treasury Bonds, this makes the fiscal outlook for the USA that much worse.
  - Apollo Global's Yahoo Finance, 02 June 2025

• Expecting bond yields to rise (and prices to decline) as Republicans worsen the national debt of the USA, investors are joining Warren Buffett and placing big short orders for Treasury Bonds
  - Versant's CNBC, 02 June 2025

• To make it easier to increase the national debt by trillions, the Trump administration wants to make it easier for banks to own Treasury Bonds. After the 2008 financial crisis involving banks, the government added restrictions to banks' holding of Treasury Bonds.
  - Apollo Global's Yahoo Finance, 01 June 2025

• I never thought that I would say this: buy Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). The yield on 30-year TIPS recently reached 2.7%. That said, a 5% long-term Treasury bond yield, compared with a 4.7% earnings yield (the inverse of the price/earnings ratio) on equiities, "should be a bit of no-brainer for asset allocators".
  - Barron's, 31 May 2025

• We are witnessing the bond market's power to intimidate. Gaping government budget deficits, on-again-off-again tariff wars and now, soaring bond yields. No wonder the markets are jumpy.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 30 May 2025

• On May 21, a lackluster auction for 20-year USA Treasury Bonds delivered what can only be described as a resounding vote of no confidence in s economic stewardship of Trump and Republicans in Washington. It could indicate a coming collapse of Trump's economic 'house of cards'.
  - The Hill, 30 May 2025

• Could Taiwan derail Trump's 'big beautiful' plan for the housing market in the USA? The life insurance industry in Taiwan is a major buyer of USA Treasury Bonds.
  - Zero Hedge, 29 May 2025

• The national debt of Nihon, now twice the size of the economy of Nihon at $9 trillion, forces hard choices. The government faces pressure to curtail debt-fueled spending that some argue has staved off populist waves. As the Bank of Nihon moves away from the negative interest rates that for years made it easy for the government to borrow, the limits on spending are more stark.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 29 May 2025

• Government bonds in Nihon attract weak demand as rise in superlong yields sparks concern. An auction of 40-year government bonds in Nihon attracted the weakest demand in nearly a year, signaling investor caution amid a global rise in yields of ultralong bonds.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 29 May 2025

• Investors rattled by the rout in long-dated Treasury Bonds are turning more bearish as bond yields continue to oscillate around a key 5% psychological threshold. "Demand for longer-term securities is diminishing (less trust in government spending) at the same time as supply is growing. That is going to put pressure on the long end of all these yield curves."
  - Bloomberg, 28 May 2025

• The government bond selloff in Nihon is a warning to the world. As its bond yields surge and demand crumbles, Nihon is becoming a case study in what happens when investors lose patience with massive national deficits and accrued debt.
  - Quartz, 28 May 2025

• Moments ago the Treasury Department sold $70 billion in 5-year Treasury Bonds, which saw the highest foreign demand in history!
  - Zero Hedge, 28 May 2025

• Rising bond yields, due to Republicans wanting to greatly increast the national debt (which will need more Treasury Bonds sold) is forcing up interest rates that cities and towns have to offer to sell their municipal bonds, resulting in less money for public services and families who are not the rich beneficiaries of Trump's proposed tax law.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 28 May 2025

• Government bond yields rise sharply in Nihon, the government announced it will "consider" reducing issuance of super-long bonds in the wake of recent sharp rises in yields for the notes, in an attempt to remove long-dated supply which has slammed prices for long-dated bonds to record low as policymakers seek to soothe market concerns about worsening government finances.
  - Zero Hedge, 27 May 2025

• Stocks jump in price in Nihon as the government panics about rising government bond yields
  - Zero Hedge, 27 May 2025

• Yields on super-long government bonds in Nihon fall sharply after Reuters reported that the finance ministry of Nihon might issue fewer of these bonds.
  - Thomson's Reuters, 26 May 2025

• Republican's big for-the-rich proposed tax law scared bond markets. That is bad economic news if you are not rich. Investors are worried that Trump and the GOP are acting in ways that will both lower growth and raise interest rates, a toxic combination.
  - Comcast's MSNBC, 26 May 2025

• Four of the biggest life insurers in Nihon (Meiji Yasuda Life
  - Bloomberg, 26 May 2025

• Four of the biggest life insurers in Nihon (Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance, Sumitomo Life Insurance, Dai-Ichi Life Holdings, Nippon Life Insurance) reported about $60 billion of combined unrealized losses on their domestic bond holdings for the latest fiscal year, underscoring the risks they face as interest rates climb. For now, they are not overly concerned.
  - Zero Hedge, 26 May 2025

• An "unsustainable fiscal situation": financial investors prepare for more turmoil in the Treasury Bond market as Trump's proposed tax law worsens concerns about a worsening national deficit
  - Apollo Global's Yahoo Finance, 25 May 2025

• The lowest rung of junk bonds, the CCC tier, are flashing warnings that the US economy could soon face slower growth and higher inflation, as well as the possibility of a recession. Risk premiums on junk bonds rated in the CCC tier have widened 1.56 percentage points this year, and 0.4 percentage point in the latest week. The gap between spreads on CCCs and the next tier above them, Bs, has been widening this year and in the last two weeks, signaling that the weakest bonds are lagging.
  - Bloomberg, 24 May 2025

• There is a "buyer's strike" on USA financial assets as foreigner investors cannot tolerate high USA national deficits anymore, at the same time that the USA dollar is weakening. Trump's desire for a new tax law that greatly increases the debt of the USA is making things worse.
  - Jiaravanon's Fortune, 24 May 2025

• The yields on 30-year USA Treasury Bonds now are greater than the SP500 earnings-per-share for the 1st time in 23 years
  - Zero Hedge, 24 May 2025

• The international bond market to overspending politicians in Washington: we will make you pay! The global savings glut is over and governments have to pay more to borrow; the situation for the USA is especially risky with its high debt as bond yields rise (making it more expensive to borrow).
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 24 May 2025

• The international bond market to overspending politicians in Washington: we will make you pay! The global savings glut is over and governments have to pay more to borrow; the situation for the USA is especially risky with its high debt as bond yields rise (making it more expensive to borrow).
  - Zero Hedge, 24 May 2025

• Bad news for stocks is the rise in long-term interest rates (on Treasury Bonds, due to Trump's proposed tax law that worsens the national debt)
  - Barron's, 23 May 2025

• The national debt of the USA is about to matter again, especially to the bond market. When interest rates outpace growth, very bad things can happen. Rising debt-servicing costs force the government to borrow more money to make its payments; investors, in turn, demand even higher interest rates, which pushes debt-servicing costs even higher, and so on.
  - The Atlantic, 23 May 2025

• The bond market is worrying about the increased national debt of the USA due to Trump's proposed tax law
  - Jiaravanon's Fortune, 23 May 2025

• If yields of government bonds in Nihon continue to rise, investors in Nihon will sell their USA Treasury Bonds and USA stocks, and invest buy their own country's bonds
  - Zero Hedge, 23 May 2025

• Liquidity in the market for government bonds in Nihon is deteriorating as heightened inflation expectations become entrenched
  - Zero Hedge, 22 May 2025

• Investors have been rattled by rising yields for USA Treasury Bonds. They should be more worried about rising government bond yields in Nihon.
  - Murdoch's MarketWatch, 22 May 2025

• Yields on 20-, 30-, and 40-year government bonds in Nihon have been climbing, fuelled by growing concerns over the worsening fiscal health in Nihon, as some political parties advocate for consumption tax reductions to counter rising prices (too eerily similar to the problems of the USA). The 30-year JGB yield rose 1 basis point to 3.175%, hovering near an all-time high of 3.185% hit on Wednesday. The 40-year yield slid half a basis point to 3.665%, edging lower from the record 3.675% touched on Thursday.
  - Thomson's Reuters, 22 May 2025

• The USA dollar is expected to end a 4-week increase, due to worries about the increasingly large national debt of the USA
  - Thomson's Reuters, 22 May 2025

• The USA Congress to financial markets: "Shut Up! We do not care about increasing the already high USA debt". [Making rich people richer is more important.]
  - Apollo Global's Yahoo Finance, 22 May 2025

• A shocking admission from Goldman Sachs: the only way to survive the bond-stock reflexive selling loop is to buy gold and cryptocurrencies and non-USA stocks
  - Zero Hedge, 22 May 2025

• An upset financial market continues to push up the yield of Treasury Bonds for a second day, with the 10-year rising to 4.61% and the 30-year rising to 5.14% (highest since Oct 2023), after the House approves a new tax law that greatly increases the USA national debt
  - Warner Brothers CNN, 22 May 2025

• An upset financial market continues to push up the yield of Treasury Bonds for a second day, with the 10-year rising to 4.61% and the 30-year rising to 5.14% (highest since Oct 2023), after the House approves a new tax law that greatly increases the USA national debt
  - Versant's CNBC, 22 May 2025

• The bond market is waking up to the fiscal mess in Washington of increasing national debt
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 22 May 2025

• An upset financial market continues to push up the yield of Treasury Bonds for a second day, with the 10-year rising to 4.61% and the 30-year rising to 5.14% (highest since Oct 2023), after the House approves a new tax law that greatly increases the USA national debt
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 22 May 2025

• The national debt of the USA is on pace to set a record high that dates back 335 years to 1790
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 22 May 2025

• Treasury Bond yields continue to rise as Republicans plan to pass a new tax law that greatly increases the debt of the USA. One analyst: "Higher bond yields mean higher interest bills, higher interest bills mean more debt, more debt may mean QE [quantitative easing] or efforts to loosen monetary policy, only for that to perhaps lead to higher inflation, higher interest rates, higher bond yields and around we go again." -- "This is a classic emerging market trap, except America (and for that matter Nihon) are staring right into it."
  - Versant's CNBC, 22 May 2025

• To increase demand for Treasury Bonds (to offset decreased demand due to the USA increasingly huge debt), Republicans want to regulate/approve stablecoins, which use Treasury Bonds as collateral.
  - Versant's CNBC, 22 May 2025

• The Dow dropped 1.9% (and the SP500 down 1.6%) as the House of Representatives was close to approving a new tax law that greatly increases the national debt of the USA
  - Warner Brothers CNN, 22 May 2025

• The Federal Reserve should no "nothing at all" about rising Treasury Bond yields, macro strategist Craig Shapiro argues: "let the bond vigilantes eat" and push up bond yields, increasing pressure on the government to control spending and borrowing
  - Bering Capital's Benzinga, 21 May 2025

• Treasury Bond yields soar, with Big Tech stocks and oil declining in price, and gold and bitcoin rising in price
  - Zero Hedge, 21 May 2025

• Treasury Bond yields soar, and stock prices plunge, after an ugly 20-year Treasury Bond auction sees the biggest tail of 2025. The Dow drops 1.8% for the day, the SP500 down 1.5%
  - Zero Hedge, 21 May 2025

• The Dow drops 300 points at open, as Treasury Bond yields moved back to levels (30-year over 5%, 10-year over 4.5%) that have pressured the economy and financial markets in the past as investors feared a proposed USA tax law could worsen the USA's budget deficit, a risk highlighted in a Moody's downgrade of the USA credit rating at the end of last week.
  - Versant's CNBC, 21 May 2025

• Futures slide as 30-year Treasury Bond yields rise above 5%, oil jumps on Iran war fears
  - Zero Hedge, 21 May 2025

• The government bond market in Nihon is on the verge of collapse after worst bond auction since 1987
  - Zero Hedge, 20 May 2025

• Is the government debt problem in Nihon out of control? The Bank of Nihon is now the world's largest owner of the stocks and bonds of Nihon. Nihon has a debt/GDP ratio of 234%. Investors are beginning to avoid long-term Japanese debt as they realize there is NO WAY for Nihon to get out of this situation without a crisis.
  - Zero Hedge, 20 May 2025

• The uncertain fiscal situation of the USA threatens the good mood on Wall Street. A weekslong climb in longer-term yields has been fueled by persistent worries about inflation and concerns that wider deficits will necessitate larger auctions of Treasury Bonds, lowering prices and pushing up yields which makes them more attractive than stocks.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 20 May 2025

• Mortgage rates cross back over 7% after Moody's downgrades the USA credit rating
  - Versant's CNBC, 19 May 2025

• The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) pulled in $636.9 million Friday, increasing its total assets under management to $48.7 billion amid easing USA-Zhōngguó tensions.
  - ETF.com, 19 May 2025

• Ray Dalio says the risk to USA Treasury Bonds is even greater than what is implied by Moody's downgrading the credit rating of the USA. The downgrade does not take into account the risk of the federal government printing money to pay its debt.
  - Versant's CNBC, 19 May 2025

• 30-year Treasury Bond yields rise above 5% after Moody's downgrades the credit rating of the USA from the highest, Aaa, down one level to Aa1.
  - Versant's CNBC, 19 May 2025

• 30-year Treasury Bond yields rise above 5% after Moody's downgrades the credit rating of the USA from the highest, Aaa, down one level to Aa1.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 19 May 2025

• Year-to-day, January to May of 2025, USA Treasury Bonds and the SP500 have offered similar returns, thanks to Trump's tax/tariff trade wars
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 19 May 2025

• Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich said that when global investors, including Americans, started selling USA Treasury Bonds and moving away from using the USA dollar, after Trump's taxes/tariffs were announced, the standing in the world of the USA may have declined.
  - Versant's CNBC, 19 May 2025

• Zhōngguó sells some of its USA Treasury Bonds, dropping to the thrid largest holder of the bonds after Nihon and Britain, as Zhōngguó seeks to diversify its foreign exchange reserves
  - Alibaba's South China Morning Post, 17 May 2025

• Long-term Treasury Bond yields spiked earlier this week as traders scaled back their bets on interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve and reacted to the new proposed tax law advanced by House Republicans. Bond vigilantes, who can bring fiscally irresponsible politicians to heel by selling the government bonds of a country, may rear their head if Congress does not show any appetite to bring the federal deficit under control.
  - Jiaravanon's Fortune, 16 May 2025

• Long-term Treasury Bond yields spiked earlier this week as traders scaled back their bets on interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve and reacted to the new proposed tax law advanced by House Republicans. Bond vigilantes, who can bring fiscally irresponsible politicians to heel by selling the government bonds of a country, may rear their head if Congress does not show any appetite to bring the federal deficit under control.
  - Barron's, 16 May 2025

• Why is the Fed quietly buying over $40 billion in USA Treasury Bonds with QE/moneyprint - and hoping nobody notices? This is stealth easing. It is socialist monetary policy on 'tiptoes'. If Zhōngguó continues to sell USA Treasury Bonds to buy gold, good for gold, sending up bond yields (making the USA debt more expensive), forcing the Fed to do more socialist money-printing/QE.
  - Murdoch's MarketWatch, 16 May 2025

• Stephanie Pomboy, a Wall Street macroeconomic expert calls the current stock market rally a "headline sugar rush". With more than $2 trillion in Treasury issuance on the horizon and major foreign buyers Zhōngguó buying fewer bonds, "Who is going to buy $2 trillion worth of Treasury bonds?" Less demand drives down bond prices, pushes up bond yields, to the point where high-priced stocks are dumped for bonds. Unless the Fed engages in socialist moneyprinting and buys trillions of dollars of bonds.
  - Bering Capital's Benzinga, 15 May 2025

• USA Treasury Bonds face another price shock from inflation due to Trump's taxes/tariffs. Tariff inflation, even if it is temporary, will further deter overseas buyers in US government debt.
  - Zero Hedge, 13 May 2025

• The economic shock of Trump's tax/tariff trade war reverberates in the Treasury bond market. Longer-term Treasury Bond yields have climbed, keeping borrowing costs elevated, even as short-term yields have dropped.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 12 May 2025

• Treasury Bond yields soar after the USA and Zhōngguó agree to reduce taxes/tariffs on each others' exports. The 10-year Treasury yield was up by 0.066% basis points to 4.441%, while the 2-year Treasury yield jumped more than 0.1% basis points to 3.985%.
  - Versant's CNBC, 12 May 2025

• The world will need to borrow its way out of the financial chaos of Trump's tax/tariff trade war
  - Alibaba's South China Morning Post, 10 May 2025

• Why 'Bond King' Jeff Gundlach predicts that record-setting gold is poised for another 20% increase in price
  - Business Insider, 09 May 2025

• Higher inflation usually leads to closer links between stocks and bonds, reducing the benefit of including both in a portfolio
  - Bezos' Washington Post, 06 May 2025

• "So much for not being a 'safe' asset": Treasury Bond yields decline (prices rise) after an excellent auction for 10-year Treasury Bonds
  - Zero Hedge, 06 May 2025

• Trump's tax/tariff trade war has caused one of the closest allies of the USA, Nihon, to mildly threaten to starting selling the USA Treasury Bonds. Nihon owns the largest amount of Treasury Bonds. Trump's taxes/tariffs have the potential to reduce the amount of capital seeking to invest in American assets, which could lift interest rates and hurt the value of the USA dollar. If Nihon sold massive amounts of US debt, it would very likely spark a massive Treasury selloff. Treasury rates would in turn sharply increase, making it more expensive for Washington to borrow and scaring investors along the way.
  - Warner Brothers CNN, 06 May 2025

• Zhōngguó is avoiding, for now, a "disruptive" de-dollarization despite Trump's tax/tariff trade war, with minimal selling of USA Treasury Bonds. For now.
  - Alibaba's South China Morning Post, 06 May 2025

• The USA Treasury Department has sharply increased its borrowing estimate for the current quarter, projecting $514 billion in net marketable debt from April through June. That marks a stunning 317% jump from its earlier forecast of $123 billion, made just two months ago.
  - Bering Capital's Benzinga, 05 May 2025

• 25 years of higher interest rates ahead? Long-term Treasury Bond yields started rising in 2020, ending a decline from 1980
  - Of Two Minds blog, 02 May 2025

• MIT is the the latest elite college to borrow money from the bond market as universities contend with threats to federal funding under Trump's administration.
  - Bloomberg, 02 May 2025

• Are stocks pricing in a recession more aggressively than bonds?
  - Zero Hedge, 02 May 2025

• Stablecoins on track for $2 trillion market capitalization by 2028, predicts the USA Treasury. Stablecoin adoption could accelerate global demand for US Treasury bills, the Treasury predicted.
  - Zero Hedge, 02 May 2025

• The finance minister of Nihon threatens the liquidation of USA Treasury Bonds, sparking shock and confusion
  - Zero Hedge, 02 May 2025

• Tax and tariff fears have rocked municipal bonds. Why they are still appealing. Many long-term munis now look like bargains. How to get tax-equivalent yields of up to 8%.
  - Barron's, 26 April 2025

• Zhōngguó may shift investments from Treasury Bonds to gold and cryptocurrencies
  - Zero Hedge, 25 April 2025

• Another effect of Trump's trade wars? An ugly, tailing 7-year Treasury Bond auction sees lowest foreign demand in 3 years. This was a rather weak auction, not just the tail but more ominously, the continued decline in foreign demand.
  - Zero Hedge, 24 April 2025

• How Zhōngguó is expanding and accelerating its 'special bonds' program. Beijing is issuing more ultra-long-term government bonds as it strives to shore up the economy of Zhōngguó amid an intensifying trade war with Trump
  - Alibaba's South China Morning Post, 24 April 2025

• Buyers strike arrives: foreign demand for 2-year Treasury Bonds at auction craters to 2 year low
  - Zero Hedge, 22 April 2025

• The Treasury Bond market has emerged as one of the few brakes on Trump as he pursues his agenda on trade, taxes/taxes, personnel and more. Waves of selling after Trump's on-again, off-again tariff pronouncements have put investors on edge, even after the market recently stabilized somewhat. The bond sell-off has also been accompanied by a decline in the value of the dollar.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 21 April 2025

• Central banks are turning to gold, as two global safe financial havens - the USA dollar and USA Treasury Bonds - are losing credibility due to Trump's economic policies
  - Zero Hedge, 20 April 2025

• Bonds are a buy again. Where to find yields of 6% or more. From junk bonds to munis to mortgage securities, yields are elevated and prices depressed. Ten funds to consider.
  - Barron's, 19 April 2025

• An even dumber idea than taxes/tariffs from Trump. If import taxes don't rebalance the economy, will Trump try a partial default on Treasury Bonds?
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 18 April 2025

• Peter Schiff: the economy of the USA is an unstable 'house of cards'. "Gold is over 3,000. Gold prices are going higher as the world de-dollarizes. Central banks are going to be buying more gold and less Treasury Bonds."
  - Zero Hedge, 17 April 2025

• Por qué la reciente emisión de bonos que hizo Colombia es la más grande de su historia
  - Portafolio, 16 April 2025

• El Ministerio de Hacienda de Colombia dijo que nueva emisión de bonos es la transacción más grande hasta ahora. El Gobierno emitió un nuevo bono en mercado internación por US $1.900 millones con con vencimiento para 2030 con un rendimiento de 7,5%, así como otro por el mismo monto, US$1.900 millones, pero con vencimiento de 2035 con un rendimiento de 8,7%.
  - La Republica, 16 April 2025

• Trump's tax/tariff trade war based on "absurd math" is wrecking the brand of the USA, from USA automobiles to Treasury Bonds. The tariffs are hitting Zhōngguó at a moment when USA brands like Apple, Nike, Tesla and Starbucks are losing market share to homemade rivals.
  - Warner Brothers CNN, 16 April 2025

• A steepening of the real US Treasury Bond yield curve is signaling inflation is far from over
  - Zero Hedge, 15 April 2025

• Trump taxes/tariffs cause a large sell-off of USA Treasury Bonds. Who sold the bonds? Some argue that it is a combination of selling by the government of Zhōngguó, and selling by insurance companies in Nihon (Nihon owns the most Treasury Bonds).
  - Versant's CNBC, 15 April 2025

• Treasury Bond yields decline as the SP500 suffers a 'death cross', while the dollar continues to decline, due to Trump's tax/tariff trade war
  - Zero Hedge, 14 April 2025

• Treasury Bond yields and the USA dollar (not stocks) are driving Trump's tax/tariff policy flipflops. Declines in Treasury Bond yields and the dollar have much higher political costs than those in stocks.
  - Zero Hedge, 14 April 2025

• Shocked by Trump's trade war, foreign investors are selling USA government bonds, long the world's safe haven
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 13 April 2025

• "This is not normal": Trump's taxes/tariffs disrupt the bond market. In the usually steady government bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has risen to about 4.5 percent from less than 4 percent at the end of last week.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 12 April 2025

• Investors are growing concerned about an asset of financial assets from the USA as the prices of Treasury Bonds and the USA dollar decline
  - Versant's CNBC, 12 April 2025

• Investors are growing concerned about an asset of financial assets from the USA as the prices of Treasury Bonds and the USA dollar decline
  - France24, 12 April 2025

• The USA came close to financial disaster this week, thanks to Trump's tax/tariff antics, and could come close again to financial disaster. The immediate market crisis over Trump's taxes/tariffs may have eased, but problems in the bond market could easily recur.
  - Barron's, 12 April 2025

• The bond market's rout, thanks to Trump's tax/tariff trade war, is bad news for the economy of the USA
  - Barron's, 12 April 2025

• The problem with active bond ETFs - many of them trade at a premium that effectively makes them much pricier than they first appear
  - Barron's, 12 April 2025

• 10-year Treasury Bond yields rise abive 4.5% after a surge this week due to Trump's taxes/tariffs, which is worrying Wall Street and the White House
  - Versant's CNBC, 11 April 2025

• Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said recent market trends show investors are moving away from the USA as the safest place to invest. Treasury Bond yields are rising while the USA dollar has sagged against its global counterparts. The opposite should happen with tax/tariff increases, unless investors are taking their money out of the USA in response to Trump's policies.
  - Versant's CNBC, 11 April 2025

• The sell-off in Treasury Bonds and the dollar, due to Trump's tax/tariff trade war, raises questions about the 'safe haven' status of the dollar and Bonds, a status very important to the economy of the USA
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 10 April 2025

• The dollar and bond market's ominous message for Trump. The stock-market meltdown that accompanied Trump' intensifying trade war was unsettling enough. The fall in the dollar and rise in bond yields has been truly ominous.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 10 April 2025

• Treasury Bond bid/ask spreads blow out amid funding crisis: "We are starting to look a bit like March 2020" [the Covid crash], warns Goldman Sachs
  - Zero Hedge, 09 April 2025

• Why Trump capitulated on his tax/tariff tactics, just hours after they went into effect
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 09 April 2025

• A Fox News reporter bursts the MAGA bubble: Trump "capitulated" to the bond market (there were massive sales of USA Treasury bonds) when he delayed taxes/tariffs for 90 days - it wasn't brilliant negotiating, since no tax/tariff deals have been reached with any country.
  - The Daily Beast, 09 April 2025

• The basis trade is blowing up, creating a multi-trillion dollar liquidation panic. "There is massive deleveraging going on, any source of liquidity is being tapped ... hedge funds have been liquidating US Treasury basis trades furiously."
  - Versant's CNBC, 09 April 2025

• Treasury Bonds yields are spiking, not because of Zhōngguó selling USA bonds, but because the hedge fund basis trade is blowing up. The basis trade is an arbitrage strategy that takes advantage of the price difference between a futures contract and the underlying asset (often a bond or another security). For example, buy a Treasury Bond and sell a Treasury Bond futures contract. Traders expect that by the time the futures contract expires, the price of the futures and the cash bond will converge -- allowing them to lock in a relatively risk-free profit, especially when they leverage the trade with cheap borrowed money. Markets are fragile. Tariffs broke the bond market and now this decline is about this realization.
  - Zero Hedge, 09 April 2025

• In the last 48 hours, yields on 10-year Treasury Bonds spike from 3.9% to 4.5%, a huge increase, as investors sell Treasury Bonds as they grow more worried about Trump's worsening tax/tariff war.
  - Versant's CNBC, 09 April 2025

• In the last 48 hours, yields on 10-year Treasury Bonds spike from 3.9% to 4.5%, a huge increase, as investors sell Treasury Bonds as they grow more worried about Trump's worsening tax/tariff war.
  - BBC, 09 April 2025

• Investors flee to buying shorter-date German government bonds as Trump's taxes/tariffs cause USA Treasury Bonds to decline in price
  - Versant's CNBC, 09 April 2025

• The rapid sell-off of USA Treasury Bonds raises questions about the 'safe haven' status of these Bonds
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 09 April 2025

• Here is how Zhōngguó could crush the housing market in the USA. Zhōngguó could sell its hundreds of billions of dollars of USA mortgage-backed securities in retailiation for Trump's trade war. This would force up mortgage rates in the USA, and kill the housing market.
  - Versant's CNBC, 09 April 2025

• A dismal, 3-year Treasury Bond auction closes, with the 3rd biggest tail on record - only worse during Covid, and the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank
  - Zero Hedge, 08 April 2025

• The yield on 10-year USA Treasury Bonds rise back above 4% despite the threat to growth of Trump's taxes/tariffs
  - Versant's CNBC, 08 April 2025

• The VIX is pricing in a recession, while junk bonds (still) see zero risk of a recession
  - Zero Hedge, 07 April 2025

• Bond yields plummet around the world as investors take cover amid the plummeting stock market. The 10-year government bond in Deutschland dropped from 2.72% yield to 2.59%. The Stateside, the 2-year Treasury yield has fallen to its lowest level since September 2022, last seen around 3.58%. A sharp drop in the 10-year yield slowed Monday, with the rate nearly steady but still holding below the 4% mark, where it last traded in October 2024.
  - Versant's CNBC, 07 April 2025

• Trump's economic plans are obtaining the Treasury Bond rally he wanted, but for the wrong reasons. Tax/Tariff-driven fears of slower growth have triggered a sharp drop in Treasury Bond yields, which influence borrowing rates.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 05 April 2025

• Dow futures drop over 1500 points (down 3.6%), SP500 drops 4.3%, and Nasdaq drops 4.9%, after Zhōngguó imposes retaliatory taxes/tariffs on imports from the USA. Treasury Bond yields continue to drop on fear that this trade war will lead to a recession.
  - Versant's CNBC, 04 April 2025

• 10-year Treasury Bond yields fall to lowest level since October, down 0.13% to 4.062%, after Trump unveils sweeping new taxes/tariffs
  - Versant's CNBC, 03 April 2025

• Investors who think the return to high tariffs will hammer the economy into recession should expect much bigger declines in stocks and bond yields
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 03 April 2025

• $1,600,000,000 - GWG Holdings filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection nearly three years ago, and now distressed investors who bought $1.6 billion in so-called GWG L bonds have been offered $50.5 million in a settlement proposal made Friday. For several years before its bankruptcy, about 40 broker-dealers sold customers close to $1.6 billion in GWG L bonds, so-called because they were backed by life settlements. The bonds were sold in $1,000 units.
  - Investment News, 11 March 2025

• Chuck E. Cheese owner CEC Entertainment is struggling to drum up enough demand for a $660 million high-yield bond sale to refinance debt it has due next year. One of the people attributed the difficulties to a broader market rout stemming from concerns about Trump's erratic tax/tariff policies as well as the economy of the USA.
  - Bloomberg, 28 March 2025

• The bond yield curve hits its steepest in 3 years, as gold rises to a new record high. The rise in gold prices in the last three months is its best quarterly gain since 1986.
  - Zero Hedge, 27 March 2025

• The Congressional Budget Office estimates that if the debt limit remains unchanged, the government's ability to borrow using extraordinary measures will probably be exhausted in August or September 2025
  - Zero Hedge, 26 March 2025

• The Congressional Budget Office estimates that if the debt limit remains unchanged, the government's ability to borrow using extraordinary measures will probably be exhausted in August or September 2025
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 26 March 2025

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi has a $346 billion debt problem that his administration wants help for from the households of Bharat. A record $346 billion of sovereign bonds are due over the next five years, a result of pandemic-era borrowing and Modi's infrastructure-spending binge. To tackle the burden, the Reserve Bank of Bharat and the government are swapping maturing debt with longer-dated notes. These refinancing debt auctions are gaining momentum thanks to an increasingly influential player: households. Households have been pouring money into insurers, which in turn are buying heaps of long-dated sovereign bonds.
  - Bloomberg, 25 March 2025

• Overvalued stocks face more downside as the selloff in Treasury Bonds worsens (the selloff pushes up yield, making them more attractive vis-a-vis stocks)
  - Zero Hedge, 25 March 2025

• The tax-exempt status of municipal bonds could be at risk, as one Trump policy proposal is to "Eliminate Exclusion of Interest on State and Local Bonds". This frees up money for tax breaks
  - Barron's, 22 March 2025

• The Federal Reserve said on Friday the loss it faced last year on its operations declined relative to 2023. The Fed said the total distribution of its comprehensive net loss last year stood at $77.5 billion versus $114.6 billion in the prior year. The Fed last turned a profit in 2022.
  - Thomson's Reuters, 21 March 2025

• The USA Treasury Bond holdings of the Tether stablecoin surpass those of Canada and Taiwan, and rank 7th globally
  - Zero Hedge, 20 March 2025

• The gap between the yield on the USA Treasury Bonds and the yield on corporate junk bonds rose to 3.4% on Thursday, its highest level since mid-September and a full percentage point increase from the lows of January. The differential is called a spread and it rises when investors begin to worry about potential trouble in the economy and in turn ask for more yield to validate buying bonds from risky companies, also called high-yield or junk bonds. Spreads have increased as Trump has slapped taxes/tariffs on more countries, including the closest allies of the USA.
  - Barron's, 17 March 2025

• Five charts that show that credit complacency is fracturing, with trade wars damping what had been a relentless demand for credit, including high yields for junk bonds
  - Bloomberg, 15 March 2025

• Yields on German government bonds spike as the government reaches a debt deal with the Green party, with 100 billion euros channeled to the government's existing climate and transformation fund
  - Zero Hedge, 14 March 2025

• Thanks to Trump's erratic economic policies, this week's auction of 30-year Treasury bonds resulted in poor results, as foreign buyers flee the USA market
  - Zero Hedge, 13 March 2025

• Stock prices fall as Trump declines to rule out a recession due to his erratic economic policies. The Nasdaq fell 2% and the 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.24% after the president said his economic agenda could cause short-term turbulence.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 10 March 2025

• Prices of government bonds around the world declined (driving up bond yields, making it more expensive for governments to borrow money) as investors react to the chaos of Trump's new taxes/tariffs, and after Deutschland agreed to a substantial increase in defense spending
  - Versant's CNBC, 06 March 2025

• Why the 10-year USA Treasury Bond and the USA dollar are declining in price because Deutschland plans to borrow to spend more money on defense
  - Murdoch's MarketWatch, 06 March 2025

• Prices of futures contracts plunge as the decline in prices of government bonds in Deutschland goes global
  - Zero Hedge, 06 March 2025

• An important interest rate falls, but not for the reasons Trump wanted. Investor's increasingly gloomy sentiment about economic growth appears to be driving down the yields on 10-year Treasury Bonds. A better outcome would be for the declining 10-year yield to reflect slowing inflation, the prospect of more rate cuts by the Fed and a shrinking deficit that would require less government borrowing -- all while the economy remained strong.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 04 March 2025

• "Instability and Illiquidity" looms for the Treasury Bond market as credit-cycle turns. A deterioration in credit markets, anticipated by a rise in bankruptcy filings, could trigger a hedge-fund unwind of the large bond-futures basis trade.
  - Zero Hedge, 27 February 2025

• The Federal Reserve's favorite recession indicator is flashing a danger sign ahead. The 10-year Treasury yield passed below that of the 3-month note in Wednesday trading. In market lingo, that is known as an "inverted yield curve, and it has had a sterling prediction record.
  - Versant's CNBC, 26 February 2025

• Could a 'Mar-a-Logo accord' break the stock market? Weaponization of the dollar-based global financial system by the US would put richly valued stocks at rising risk from foreign capital outflows as foreigners sell USA Treasury Bonds, pushing up yields to make them more attractive than stocks.
  - Zero Hedge, 25 February 2025

• Moody's lowers the credit rating of Nissan Motor's bonds to junk status. Moody's said the the rating action reflects Nissan's weak profitability driven by slowing demand for its aging portfolio of vehicles.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 22 February 2025

• $132,000,000 - The competition regulator in the United Kingdom fined Citi, HSBC, Morgan Stanley and Royal Bank of Canada $132 million after a probe into the exchange of sensitive information about government bonds.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 22 February 2025

• National debt has always been the ruin of great political powers. Is the USA next? From Habsburg Spain to Trump's America, there is no escaping the consequences of spending more on interest payments than on defense.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 22 February 2025

• The argument to invest in high-yield, junk, bonds at this point in time
  - Barron's, 22 February 2025

• Subprime crash redux: commercial real estate bond distress hits another record high. If this sounds a lot like the subprime crisis of 2006-2008, s because there are many similarities.
  - Zero Hedge, 21 February 2025

• If Trump plays games with the repayment of Treasury Bonds, for example, withholding some payments to Zhōngguó, it will destroy global trust in USA Treasury Bonds, a risk-free asset. It will trigger the next global economic crisis, all because of the whims of Trump.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 21 February 2025

• Credit spreads will soon widen if Treasury Secretary Bessent gets his way. High-yield (junk bonds) credit spreads are set to start widening -- and become more reflective of underlying uncertainty -- if Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's preference for lower yields is realized.
  - Zero Hedge, 17 February 2025

• Which interest rate should you care about? The Fed's short-term interest rates matter, but the main action now is in the 10-year Treasury Bond market, which influences mortgages, credit cards and much more
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 16 February 2025

• The national budget deficit of the USA hits a record high of $840 billion in the first four months of fiscal year 2025, while interest on the national debt hits a record high of $1.2 trillion
  - Zero Hedge, 12 February 2025

• 10-year Treasury Bond yields rise above 4.6% after consumer prices rise 0.5% in January, more than expencted. The 2-year Treasury Bond yield rose to 4.386%.
  - Versant's CNBC, 12 February 2025

• Treasury Secretary Bessent wants interest rates lower, especially for the 10-Year Treasury bond. But this could be prevented not only by bond traders, but also by central banks reducing their balance sheets by selling USA Treasury bonds, which will push down prices bid and thus increase effective yields.
  - Zero Hedge, 10 February 2025

• "Sell All Things" the market stalls ahead of the 'most important job print' ... since the last one. Everything was sold today - stocks, bonds, gold, crypto, dollar.
  - Zero Hedge, 06 February 2025

• Banks are finally able to sell $5.5 billion of Twitter/X loans after investor interest surges because of Musk's authoritarian grab at political power
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 06 February 2025

• In the first refunding announcement under Trump's new Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the USA Treasury unveiled that it will keep sales of longer-term debt unchanged well into 2025, despite Bessent's criticism of Janet Yellen's issuance strategy before he was picked for the job.
  - Zero Hedge, 05 February 2025

• Bond prices, gold and Big Tech rise in price after a bad jobs report and lessened worries about the trade war with Zhōngguó
  - Zero Hedge, 04 February 2025

• Venezuela's government bonds rise above 20 cents to the dollar (for 2027 bonds), up 3.5 cents since Trump took office, after Venezuela agreed to release six imprisoned US citizens and to accept the return of undocumented immigrants sent by the Trump administration
  - Bloomberg, 03 February 2025

• For Trump to order the USA government to stockpile cryptocurrencies will send a horrible message to the world: that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are a safe alternative to the USA dollar. It signals to the world to think twice about investing in US-dollar denominated assets like our debt because crypto is the new thing. The USA is still hugely addicted to debt financing of the government, and the USA needs to buy Treasury Bonds, bonds investors view as safe. But if cryptocurrencies are safe, thanks to Trump, investors will buy fewer bonds (driving up interest rates).
  - Murdoch's New York Post, 01 February 2025

• Gold futures set a fresh record on safe-haven demand, a weaker dollar and lower Treasury Bond yields.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 30 January 2025

• The bubble in junk bonds in the USA is inflated by 'exceptionalism'. Hopes of favorable policies from the new USA administration are galvanizing demand for a constrained supply of corporate debt, bringing credit markets to a boil while raising the odds of a blowup if the riskiest borrowers buckle under Trump's economic plans based on new taxes/tariffs.
  - Zero Hedge, 28 January 2025

• The extra reward for owning stocks over bonds has disappeared. A combination of higher Treasury Bond yields and soaring equity valuations pushed the equity risk premium into the red, posing a threat to a recent stock rally.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 27 January 2025

• High interest rates are hammering investors. What lies ahead could be financially worse. Rising rates would be bad news for bondholders and borrowers of all stripes, particularly the U.S. government. They cast a shadow over stocks, too.
  - Barron's, 25 January 2025

• Los Angeles is on fire, forcing the municipal bond market to wake to the risks of climate change and global heating
  - Barron's, 25 January 2025

• BlackRock CEO wants the SEC to "rapidly approve" tokenization of bonds and stocks, making the stock market even more criminal
  - Zero Hedge, 24 January 2025

• The balance sheet of the central Bank of Nihon is an accident waiting to happen
  - Zero Hedge, 23 January 2025

• Futures on the stock indexes drop in price as Treasury Bond yields hit a 1-week high
  - Zero Hedge, 23 January 2025

• An excellent auction of 20-year Treasury bonds, thanks to the recent yield spike, with the yield on bonds sold today at 4.9%
  - Zero Hedge, 22 January 2025

• Our recent article, "Why Are Bond Yields Rising", explains that the recent 1% increase in yields, as shown below, is almost entirely due to negative sentiment. As we wrote, the bond market calls sentiment the term premium. Of the 1% yield increase, only 10% is due to fundamental factors, leaving 90% a function of bond investor concerns. Consequently, the term premium is at its highest level since at least 1990, and s perched three standard deviations above its norm. The article focuses on two culprits driving the premium: rising deficits and inflation. A Twitter user replied to our article saying, "It is the Dollar, stupid!". Despite the rudeness, he is correct; the rising dollar is also to blame.
  - Zero Hedge, 22 January 2025

• The USA faces record levels of national debt as Republicans plan tax cuts
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 18 January 2025

• The coming battle between Trump versus the budget hawks. How the spending plans of the Republican party that conflict with Trump could be worsened by Wall Street. Rising bond yields are complicating Trump's plans to reduce taxes.
  - Barron's, 18 January 2025

• Active bond funds are crushing their benchmarks
  - Barron's, 18 January 2025

• "The recovery is still fragile" - yields of government bonds in Zhōngguó hit record lows (as bond prices rise due to investor interest) despite surprise 'beat' of the latest GDP report
  - Zero Hedge, 17 January 2025

• Bonds that once haunted banks are now juicing profits. Banks are expecting a bump to their core banking income as older, lower-yielding bonds mature and can be reinvested at today's far higher yields.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 17 January 2025

• Bonds, bitcoin and gold rise in price after some comments from the Fed that they might reduce interest rates some more
  - Zero Hedge, 16 January 2025

• A benign inflation report and bullish bank earnings sparks a short-squeeze across all assets: gold, bitcoin, stocks, bonds and oil rise higher in price as the dollar dips in value
  - Zero Hedge, 15 January 2025

• Why bond yields are surging around the world. The selloff in government debt is making it costlier to borrow, jarring stocks and pressuring indebted countries.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 14 January 2025

• A global bond sell-off is deepening as investors lower their expectations of a Fed interest rate reduction. Bond yields have mostly been rising globally with the USA 10-year Treasury yield touching a fresh 14-month high of 4.799% on Monday. A combination of fewer rate cuts and an increasing term premium associated with widening government budget deficits are key drivers for this global selloff, said market watchers.
  - Versant's CNBC, 14 January 2025

• Stocks are weakening despite signs the US economy is reaccelerating, as higher bond yields are beginning to degrade equity valuations.
  - Zero Hedge, 13 January 2025

• Stock-market investors are getting nervous about this bond-market move that has only happened twice in over 40 years. Only twice since the early 1980s has the 10-year yield jumped simultaneously by about as much as the Fed has reduced interest rates -- and it has a lot to do with rising inflation expectations.
  - Murdoch's MarketWatch, 12 January 2025

• The SP500's $18 trillion rally is threatened by the psychology of 5% bond yields. "If the 10-year hits 5% there will be a knee-jerk reaction to sell stocks."
  - Bloomberg, 12 January 2025

• Bond prices are rising. Why that is a problem for stocks.
  - Barron's, 12 January 2025

• The United Kingdom is the biggest loser from the rise in bond yields. The magnitude of the selloff served as a reminder that rising borrowing costs will have consequences for highly indebted governments.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 11 January 2025

• The stock market embraced higher yields. Now it fears higher yields. Investors have shifted from thinking higher Treasury yields are an unwelcome side effect of the stronger growth promised by Trump, to worrying that higher borrowing costs might end up being very important.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 11 January 2025

• Yields on USA Treasury bonds jumped to their highest level since November 2023 after the latest jobs data came in stronger than economists had forecast. The 10-year Treasury yield increased nearly 0.06% to 4.745%. The 2-year Treasury surged more than 0.10% to 4.369%. The strong labor market data makes it less likely that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at its policy meeting later this month.
  - Versant's CNBC, 10 January 2025

• Bond yield reaction shouldn't be large if payroll history is a guide. Historical data is consistent with a relatively contained net move in US yields after today's payrolls data report.
  - Zero Hedge, 10 January 2025

• Government bond yields in the UK hit highs not seen since 1998. Yields on UK government debt rose to their highest levels for over 25 years and the British pound continued to sag against the dollar, as investors worry about increasing levels of government borrowing and a generally lackluster economy.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 10 January 2025

• Soaring bankruptcies bode ill for stocks in the USA. Stocks in the USA are on increasingly unstable ground as credit spreads begin widening due to greater bankruptcy risk, rising yields and a steepening yield curve.
  - Zero Hedge, 09 January 2025

• 30-year Treasury Bond yields, at the latest auction, are sold at a yield of 4.913%, the highest yield since August 2007
  - Zero Hedge, 08 January 2025

• Stocks are close to the most overvalued against corporate credit and Treasuries in about two decades. Corporate bond credit spreads represent the difference between a corporate s yield and a similar maturity USA Treasury Bond.
  - Zero Hedge, 08 January 2025

• Government bond yields in the UK rise to a 16-year high, while stocks and the pound decline
  - Zero Hedge, 08 January 2025

• Outflows from bond ETFs, such as TLT, have been tremendous over the last two months, due to tax-related needs and pessimism about bond prices.
  - Zero Hedge, 08 January 2025

• Bitcoin drops 5% below $97,000 as Treasury Bond yields rising to almost 4.7% put pressure on risky assets. Ether dropped 8%. Coinbase dropped 8% and Microstrategy dropped 9%.
  - Versant's CNBC, 07 January 2025

• A good time to buy TIPS inflation-protected Treasury Bonds, which are now paying nearly 2.5% above inflation for the 20-year and 30-year TIPS bonds.
  - Murdoch's MarketWatch, 04 January 2025

• The USA will probably lose its last Triple-A credit rating this year
  - Barron's, 04 January 2025

• Credit spreads have not looked this good since the 2000s. Can they get better? Corporate bond issuance surged in 2024, fueled by spreads that hit historically low levels.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 31 December 2024

• After another bad year for bond prices (but good for bond yields), investors lose faith in a turnaround. Many worry that a tough environment for bonds could get even worse.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 30 December 2024

• Prepare your bond portfolio for interest rate volatility
  - Barron's, 27 December 2024

• 10-year Treasury Bond yields rise back above 4.6% after mixed jobless claims data
  - Versant's CNBC, 27 December 2024

• 2024 closes with the strongest demand for 7-year Treasury bonds at auction
  - Zero Hedge, 26 December 2024

• Treasury bond yields jump to 6-month highs, with the 10-year bonds rising to a yield of 4.63%
  - Zero Hedge, 26 December 2024

• The government of Zhōngguó to issue a record amount of 3 trillion in government bonds to boost the economy
  - Zero Hedge, 24 December 2024

• Visualizing $102 trillion of global debt in 2024: 34% held by the USA, 16% by Zhōngguó, 10% held by Nihon - together about 50% of global debt.
  - Zero Hedge, 22 December 2024

• Trump's threat to seize the Panama Canal from Panama pushed down Panamanian government bond prices by about $0.01
  - Bloomberg, 22 December 2024

• Trump threatens to reassert USA control over the Panama Canal (to do so would violates international law), accusing Panama of charging excessive rates to use the Central American passage, which allows ships to cross between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Trump's threats were an exceedingly rare example of a leader of the USA saying he could push a sovereign country to hand over territory.
  - Thomson's Reuters, 22 December 2024

• The yield on 1-year government bonds in Zhōngguó crash below 1% for the first time since 2008
  - Zero Hedge, 20 December 2024

• 10-year Treasury Bond prices decline, sending yields over 4.5%, as the Fed signals caution on future rate cuts
  - Versant's CNBC, 18 December 2024

• The Fed reduces interest rates, but projects fewer reductions next year. Federal Reserve officials projected just two rate cuts in 2025, and they made it clear that future reductions would hinge on inflation progress.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 18 December 2024

• Analysts at T. Rowe Price predict that USA Treasury Bonds could return a 6% yield in the coming years, as the fiscal woes of the USA worsen and Trump's policies help keep inflation elevated. They argue that financial problems of the USA will lower demand for USA Treasury Bonds, pushing down prices people are willing to pay to buy the bonds, and thus pushing up yields.
  - Bloomberg, 17 December 2024

• A "dire situation" - government bond yields in Zhōngguó hit record low on a "big disappointment" with reports on retail sales
  - Zero Hedge, 16 December 2024

• Weak demand for government bonds being sold, and a ballooning budget deficit, are early warning signs for Hong Kong. The weak response to a government bond sale and deficit woes should spur leaders into urgent, resolute action.
  - Alibaba's South China Morning Post, 15 December 2024

• Moody's rating service reduces the credit rating for France, in a surprise downgrade amid mounting political chaos.
  - Zero Hedge, 13 December 2024

• Moody's rating service reduces the credit rating for France, in a surprise downgrade amid mounting political chaos.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 13 December 2024

• Bonds of banks in France stay resilient but political uncertainty warrants caution. The bonds of major banks in France are expected to remain relatively resilient in the face of the s political and economic challenges, helped by strong credit ratings and substantial international presence, analysts said.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 13 December 2024

• The rupee of Bharat slipped to a record low and government bond prices rose on Tuesday, as the appointment of career bureaucrat Sanjay Malhotra as the next Reserve Bank of Bharat governor raised expectations of interest rate reductions
  - Thomson's Reuters, 10 December 2024

• Why few bond funds are passively managed -- and how to create your own. The main fixed-income index is an easy benchmark for managers to beat and allows them to charge more for doing so. Solution: do it yourself.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 09 December 2024

• The World Bank on Tuesday said developing countries spent a record $1.4 trillion to service their foreign debts in 2023 as interest costs climbed to a 20-year high, squeezing budgets for necessities including healthcare, education and the environment.
  - Thomson's Reuters, 03 December 2024

• The World Bank on Tuesday said developing countries spent a record $1.4 trillion to service their foreign debts in 2023 as interest costs climbed to a 20-year high, squeezing budgets for necessities including healthcare, education and the environment.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 03 December 2024

• The US leveraged-loan market had a record $64.3 billion of deal launches Monday, nearly doubling the prior high set just two weeks ago, as firms take advantage of a still-friendly environment to borrow. The activity is meeting strong demand from investors increasingly convinced that rates will stay higher for longer than previously expected. Leveraged loans carry floating rates, generating more income when rates are elevated.
  - Bloomberg, 03 December 2024

• Argentina slashed its bloated government budget. The bond market loved it. Argentina's markets are banking on its president being further bolstered by warm relations with Trump.
  - Barron's, 30 November 2024

• Automobile manufacturers in Europe and the USA are predicted to lose up to 17% of their combined annual core profits if the Trump imposes import taxes/tariffs on Europe, Mexico and Canada, according to a report published by S&P Global, warning of potential credit downgrades
  - Thomson's Reuters, 29 November 2024

• France's 10-year bond yield is 0.85% higher than the 10-year bond yield of Germany, the highest in 12 years. The government of France risks facing higher borrowing costs as its lack of a majority in Parliament makes it harder to implement spending curbs and tax hikes needed to curb a ballooning budget deficit.
  - Zero Hedge, 27 November 2024

• The bond market's prediction for Trump's economic plans - the plans will cause more inflation. Since the US election, the bond market foresees higher inflation, while fixing swaps have marked up CPI expectations from the second quarter of next year.
  - Zero Hedge, 27 November 2024

• 5-year USA Treasury Bonds have the highest direct bid in a decade, following strong bids for 2-year bonds yesterday. Starting at the top, the auction priced at a high yield of 4.197%, up from 4.138% in October and the highest since Jun. It also stopped through the When Issued 4.199% by 0.2bps. This was the first non-tailing auction since June.
  - Zero Hedge, 26 November 2024

• The junk-bond rally in emerging markets risks being just an interlude between the debt crisis of the past four years and a new bout of distress in the next four, if Donald Trump does what he says he will. The world's poorest nations - which form the bulk of the EM junk-bond universe - stand to lose the most from his pledges to raise trade tariffs, boost government spending and deport foreigners without visas.
  - Bloomberg, 24 November 2024

• Investors are increasingly reluctant to buy USA Treasury Bonds even at these high yields. Investors are concerned about the Trump administration making the national deficit much worse, requiring more bonds to be sold, which will push down bond prices even more
  - Zero Hedge, 21 November 2024

• If Trump raises taxes/tariffs on foreign imports, Zhōngguó will need to use more of its money to stimulate the economy of Zhōngguó, leaving less money to buy USA Treasury Bonds. So who is going to fund Trump's expected huge deficits worsened by his proposed tax cuts?
  - Zero Hedge, 15 November 2024

• Fed Chair Powell admitted in his remarks today that all is not completely awesome, as he warned The Fed is in "no hurry" to cut rates... and inflation is on a "bumpy path". His comments send down the prices of stocks and bonds.
  - Zero Hedge, 14 November 2024

• Fed Chair Powell says that there is no need to "hurry" to reduce interest rates. A strong economy is giving Federal Reserve officials room to move "carefully" as they lower interest rates.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 14 November 2024

• Fed Chair Powell says that there is no need to "hurry" to reduce interest rates. A strong economy is giving Federal Reserve officials room to move "carefully" as they lower interest rates.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 14 November 2024

• In October - the first month of fiscal 2025 - the US spent a massive $584.2 billion, a 24.3% increase from the prior year, and a record government outlay for the month of October. On a trailing 6 month moving average basis, to smooth out outliers months, the spending hit $586 billion, effectively at an all time high with just the record spending spree during covid pushing government spending higher. Interest on said debt will very soon become the single largest spending category for the US government.
  - Zero Hedge, 13 November 2024

• Small cap stocks decline, as bond yields, bitcoin and the dollar soar, as gold hits two month lows
  - Zero Hedge, 12 November 2024

• The Trump financial market rally fizzles: futures drop as dollar rises, pulled higher by higher Treasury bond yields. "If we have those tariffs kicking in, if we have those so-called deportations, those would have an outright inflationary impact, and so would result in higher bond yields".
  - Zero Hedge, 12 November 2024

• If the Trump administration runs excessively stimulative fiscal policy, with lots of spending and tax cuts, leading to even wider deficits, I think then that may cause the bond vigilantes to push yields up to levels that create problems for the economy, and thus for Trump.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 11 November 2024

• DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Thursday that interest rates could shoot higher if Republicans end up controlling the House, securing a governing trifecta that gives Trump free rein to spend as socialistically as he pleases. Gundlach, a noted fixed-income investor whose firm manages over $96 billion, believes the higher government spending would require more borrowing through Treasury issuance, putting upward pressure on bond yields.
  - Versant's CNBC, 07 November 2024

• Inflation risks are now even more woefully underpriced. TIPS have burst into life after Trump's win, with breakevens up over 10 bps, but the market is still to fully reflect extant inflation risks that have been exacerbated by the result of the election.
  - Zero Hedge, 06 November 2024

• The Fed's 'temporary' - NOT - mortgage-backed security experiment will last decades and be a financial disaster for taxpayers. 14 years ago, the Fed starting making huge mortgage-backed securities purchases. The purchases pushed mortgage interest rates to artificially low levels, stoked the second great house price bubble of the 21st century and made houses unaffordable for many. In addition, these mortgage-backed securities investments unintentionally caused massive Fed losses. They are costing the Fed and taxpayers billions of dollars a month and will for years to come, as there is no practical way for the Fed to reverse its very large, deeply underwater mortgage-backed securities investment. Today, these mortgage-backed securities are worth far less than the Fed paid for them. The June 30 Fed financial statement shows an unrealized market value loss of $423 billion on the Fed's mortgage-backed securities investments. This loss is nearly 10 times the Fed's financial statement reported capital of $43 billion.
  - Thomson's Reuters, 06 November 2024

• 10-year Treasury Bond yield rise a huge 0.18% to 4.47% on the Trump win, and a possible sweep of Congress by Republicans
  - Bloomberg, 06 November 2024

• 10-year Treasury Bond yield rise a huge 0.18% to 4.47% on the Trump win, and a possible sweep of Congress by Republicans
  - Versant's CNBC, 06 November 2024

• Investors in emerging market bonds hunt for upside, prepare for elections in the USA. Emerging market bonds in local currencies fear Trump taxes/tariffs. Emerging market debt in dollars has very little upside, forcing investors to hunt for bargains in riskier places. The coming elections in the USA add a lot of uncertainty.
  - Barron's, 02 November 2024

• The bond market signals that interest rates will stay high. Stocks will not like the message.
  - Barron's, 02 November 2024

• TLT.US, the long-dated US treasury ETF, is back trading below its 200-day moving average, and on current form is looking at its fourth year running of negative price returns. Not that this sell-off reflects any lack of retail investor enthusiasm for US bonds. Quite the contrary. As US treasuries pulled back, flows into TLT.US went parabolic - and the s market cap rose from US$10 billion in 2019 to US$60 billion today.
  - Zero Hedge, 01 November 2024

• "It looks like a VaR shock to me": British government bond prices and the British pound crash amid panic over unsustainable UK deficit and tens of billions of dollars in new taxes
  - Zero Hedge, 31 October 2024

• Soaring government debts around the world and perceived fiscal laxity are provoking surges in yields and heightened volatility, which may keep sovereign bonds under pressure
  - Zero Hedge, 31 October 2024

• Yields on UK government bonds soar after the new Labor government announces huge new deficit spending funded by tax increases, which the markets predict will cause a surge in inflation, and thus want more bond yield
  - Zero Hedge, 30 October 2024

• The new Labor government in the United Kingdom raises taxes by over $50 billion to strengthen its finances
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 30 October 2024

• Britain targets the wealthy as it increases taxes by $52 billion
  - Warner Brothers CNN, 30 October 2024

• Yields for 7-year Treasury bonds decline after a strong auction. What a way to forget all about the ugly taste from the subpar 2-year and 5-year bond auctions earlier this week.
  - Zero Hedge, 29 October 2024

• An 'ugly' auction for 2-year Treasury Bonds sends bond yields to session highs, as odds of a Trump victory soar (leading to more inflation and higher yields desired for bonds)
  - Zero Hedge, 28 October 2024

• The financial morass of the government of France produces a harsh critique from Moody's. The financial ratings agency, citing a "fiscal deterioration" with rising borrowing and a political logjam, downgraded its outlook for French debt. Last week, Fitch Ratings issued a negative outlook for the sovereign credit rating of France.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 27 October 2024

• The bond market in the USA braces for the 'Trump trade' of large taxes/tariffs and deficits. The 'Trump trade' is a bet that Trump's assuming power would boost inflation and interest rates but might also juice corporate earnings in the near term.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 26 October 2024

• The bond market sniffs inflation. But it is not about Trump.
  - Barron's, 26 October 2024

• Bloomberg reports that Moody's downgraded San Francisco's credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa. This might trigger an avalanche of other downgrades from credit rating agencies in the weeks and or months ahead. Both S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings maintain AAA grades as of Wednseday. Analysts at Moody's explained their decision for the downgrade: "The sea change in office employment to a hybrid work model and reduction in commuting to the city's office core have led to reduced economic activity, very high vacancy rates, and depressed rents."
  - Zero Hedge, 24 October 2024

• Watch out: Wall Street is finding new ways to slice and dice loans. Goldman Sachs sold $475 million of a first-of-its-kind deal with public asset-backed securitization bonds backed by 'capital-call' loans. The people who brought you the scams of CDOs and other financing esoterica are back with SRTs, NAV loans and more.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 24 October 2024

• Traders sell everything as the USA dollar and bond yields soar to 3-month highs, while gold hit a new record high intraday as stocks suddenly noticed the recent surge in bond yields
  - Zero Hedge, 23 October 2024

• Futures prices slide in the USA for a third day as the dollar, and bond yield storm higher on Trumpflation trade (inflation caused by Trump imposing huge taxes/tariffs). "The Fed and election expectations have created a bit of a perfect storm for a Treasury market."
  - Zero Hedge, 23 October 2024

• When the Fed cut rates by "only-in-an-emergency" 0.5% on September 18 as it Orwell-style said the economy of the USA was "good", I wonder if their army of market economists had warned them that just over a month later, the 2- and 10-year US Treasury yield would both be trading around 0.5% higher at 4.02% and 4.18% - and with market chatter that we could test 5% in the latter ahead?
  - Zero Hedge, 22 October 2024

• Red-hot bond market powers wave of risky borrowing. Issuance of speculative-grade debt reaches nearly record levels, reflecting economic optimism.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 22 October 2024

• Bonds and bitcoin decline, while the USA dollar and crude oil prices jump, as leading economic index hits 8 year lows
  - Zero Hedge, 21 October 2024

• The federal deficit of the USA rises above $1.8 trillion in 2024 as interest on debt surpasses trillion-dollar mark. Interest expense for the year totaled $1.16 trillion, the first time that figure has topped the trillion-dollar level.
  - Versant's CNBC, 18 October 2024

• Moneyprinting quantitative easing is coming for Zhōngguó? According to multiple sources with knowledge of the matter, Zhōngguó may raise 6 trillion yuan from ultra-long special treasury bonds.
  - Zero Hedge, 14 October 2024

• Zhōngguó vows to unleash more borrowing to spur economy and strengthen banks. The finance minister said Beijing would sell bonds to supplement spending and help banks but did not detail how much. The government will borrow more to help cash-short localities and put more money in the hands of state-owned banks, an effort to address a severe slowdown in real estate and shore up crumbling consumer confidence.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 13 October 2024

• France could be entering a debt-spiral doom-loop and credit rating downgrade. France now has the largest primary budget deficit of the main European countries, larger than the deficit of Italy.
  - Zero Hedge, 12 October 2024

• Do you own junk bonds in your retirement portfolio? It is not as crazy as it sounds. Default rates are low and yields top 7%. How to invest in the upper tiers of the high-yield bond world.
  - Barron's, 11 October 2024

• If this week's 3-year bond auction was subpar, yesterday's 10-year bond auction was mediocre, then today's 30-year bond auction was an absolute stunner. In fact, one could say it was the strongest 30Y auction on record. Starting at the top, the high yield was 4.389%, up sharply from last month's 4.015% and the highest since July's 4.405%. But that was not a surprise to the market, where the When Issued had already been trading around 4.404%, meaning the auction stopped through by 1.5bps, the first non-tailing 30Y auction since June.
  - Zero Hedge, 10 October 2024

• Boeing rejects a contract offer with its union as the SP500 warns about potential negative credit rating due to a prolonged strike
  - Zero Hedge, 09 October 2024

• Moments ago the Treasury sold $58 billion in 3Y paper, matching the all time high issuance for the tenor, in an auction that was unexpectedly ugly. The sale stopped at a high yield of 3.878%, the highest since July, and tailing the When Issued 3.871% by 0.7bps, the first and biggest tail since June and followed the biggest stop through since August 2023.
  - Zero Hedge, 08 October 2024

• Futures contracts prices decline as bond yields rise back over 4%, while the yield curve reinverts, and oil prices surge
  - Zero Hedge, 07 October 2024

• Why investors are putting more money in state-specific municipal bond ETFs. These exchange-traded funds could be especially attractive if tax cuts are not extended at the end of 2025.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 07 October 2024

• The 10-year Treasury yield, a benchmark for mortgages and car loans, jumped back above 4% on Monday amid stronger labor market readings and despite the start of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting campaign last month.
  - Versant's CNBC, 07 October 2024

• Traders canceled their investments/bets on the pace of future Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts after September US employment data blew past estimates and signaled a robust hiring trend.
  - Bloomberg, 04 October 2024

• Employers in the USA add 254,000 jobs in September, surpassing expectations. The labor market bounced back in September, a sign that economic growth remained solid. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent. Job growth was broad: Health care employment boomed, as did leisure and hospitality; the construction and retail sectors also added a significant number of jobs. Manufacturing was the only major sector to lose jobs.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 04 October 2024

• Employers in the USA add 254,000 jobs in September, surpassing expectations. The labor market bounced back in September, a sign that economic growth remained solid. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent. Job growth was broad: Health care employment boomed, as did leisure and hospitality; the construction and retail sectors also added a significant number of jobs. Manufacturing was the only major sector to lose jobs.
  - Versant's CNBC, 04 October 2024

• Employers in the USA add 254,000 jobs in September, surpassing expectations. The labor market bounced back in September, a sign that economic growth remained solid. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent. Job growth was broad: Health care employment boomed, as did leisure and hospitality; the construction and retail sectors also added a significant number of jobs. Manufacturing was the only major sector to lose jobs.
  - Zero Hedge, 04 October 2024

• 10-year Treasury bond yields soar after jobs report blows past expectations, rising 0.09%, with 2-year yields up 0.14%.
  - Versant's CNBC, 04 October 2024

• Wall Street rushes to bring private credit to the masses. Investing titans are jostling to launch funds made up of hard-to-trade private loans.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 04 October 2024

• France's fall from economic 'grace' is almost complete. For the first time since 2008, French bond yields are on the verge of trading above their counterparts in the periphery of Europe.
  - Zero Hedge, 28 September 2024

• Peter Schiff predicts: "There is no doubt in my mind that we are going to have quantitative easing (printing money to buy bonds) probably at the latest by the first quarter of 2025. The Fed may even start after the election, depending on how bad things are."
  - Zero Hedge, 27 September 2024

• Many cities and counties in the USA are selling bonds to cover costs from storms and drought caused by global heating, which many of these Republican states deny is happening .
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 27 September 2024

• The interest rate cut happened, but not all borrowing costs are going down. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes is a reminder that the Fed does not have complete control over borrowing costs.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 23 September 2024

• The 12 Federal Reserve banks, once big moneymakers for the Treasury, are now posting losses. Rate cuts will help, but not for years.
  - Zero Hedge, 21 September 2024

• One reason the Fed reduced interest rates, despite a decent economy, is that the Fed itself and commercial banks, are suffering huge unrealized losses on bonds they own that were issued when interest rates were lower.
  - Zero Hedge, 20 September 2024

• Rabobank strongly criticizes the Fed's/Powell's Orwellian interest rate cut. "When asked during the Q&A what his message to the US consumer is, Powell said that the US economy is in a good place and our decision is to keep it there. Really? A 50 bps cut as a message that the economy is strong? So if they cut by 75 bps the economy is booming?"
  - Zero Hedge, 20 September 2024

• 10-year Treasury Bond yields jump as investors predict that there is no recession ahead
  - Versant's CNBC, 19 September 2024

• Bitcoin and Big Tech (Apple, Nvidia) are battered down, while bond yields and oil rise, as expectations for an interest rate reduction by the Fed of 0.5% soar
  - Zero Hedge, 16 September 2024

• "Significant" dollar downside risks continue to build. The real yield curve continues to invert, deterring inflows to the US and keeping the dollar in a downtrend.
  - Zero Hedge, 16 September 2024

• The strike by machinists at Boeing adds cash crunch to the new CEO's rescue mission. Ratings firms are warning that a prolonged work stoppage could sink Boeing's debt into junk status.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 16 September 2024

• Moody's threatens bonds issued by Boeing with a downgrade to 'junk' status, as a strike halts 737 production
  - Zero Hedge, 13 September 2024

• The downside of falling interest rates. While rate cuts are welcome in much of the economy, they pose problems for risk-averse investors who relish high money market and bond yields.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 08 September 2024

• Are local governments in Zhōngguó using unsustainable tactics to repay debt? From "smashing pots" to special bonds, regional officials are running out of ways to squeeze businesses for more money, experts say.
  - Alibaba's South China Morning Post, 07 September 2024

• The yield curve shifts, part 2: bull steepening is bearish for stocks. If the current bull steepening continues, the likelihood that gold, gold miners, and the more conservative, lower beta sectors outperform the broader market is good.
  - Zero Hedge, 04 September 2024

• Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson: unless the Fed reduces interest rates more than is already priced in, stock investors will be disappointed. Many equity market indices have rallied back to near all-time highs, while the bond market, yen and commodities reflect lingering suspicions that the coast might not be clear.
  - Zero Hedge, 01 September 2024

• The debt crisis in Africa has "catastrophic implications" for the world. Crushing obligations to foreign creditors that have few precedents have drained numerous nations in Africa of growth and stoked social instability.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 31 August 2024

• The central bank of Zhōngguó enters the treasury bond market with net buy of 100 billion yuan ($14 billion). It is its first treasury bond trade in nearly two decades in open markets, debuting a long-awaited monetary tool to help manage the domestic bond market and stabilise the economy.
  - Alibaba's South China Morning Post, 30 August 2024

• Investors have been strongly buying government bonds in Zhōngguó, pushing yields to record lows. The rally has elicited an unusual response from the central bank of Zhōngguó.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 27 August 2024

• Why Zhōngguó is battling of its own bond market. The fight by the government of Zhōngguó is fighting to stem the bond rally is a symptom. The cause is three years of failure to address the real estate meltdown and persuade consumers to borrow and spend again.
  - Barron's, 24 August 2024

• Fed Chair Powell's pivot on interest rates sparks buying panic in bonds, bitcoin, and gold as the USA dollar dumps to 2024 lows
  - Zero Hedge, 23 August 2024

• Gold, stocks, bitcoin and bonds surge in price as Fed Chair Powell says that the "time has come for policy to adjust", i.e., cocainized the markets with interest rate cuts
  - Zero Hedge, 23 August 2024

• Fed Chair Powell vows to reduce interest rates with stocks, home prices, rents and foods at all time highs. What can possibly go WRONG? The Fed will end its tightening cycle and starts the next easing cycle with stocks at all time highs, something that has never before happened in the history of capital markets! Second, this is also the first time in history when the Fed has aborted a tightening cycle having achieved zero home price easing.
  - Zero Hedge, 23 August 2024

• Fed Chair Powell vows to reduce interest rates with stocks, home prices, rents and foods at all time highs. What can possibly go WRONG? The Fed will end its tightening cycle and starts the next easing cycle with stocks at all time highs, something that has never before happened in the history of capital markets! Second, this is also the first time in history when the Fed has aborted a tightening cycle having achieved zero home price easing.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 23 August 2024

• Fed Chair Powell vows to reduce interest rates with stocks, home prices, rents and foods at all time highs. What can possibly go WRONG? The Fed will end its tightening cycle and starts the next easing cycle with stocks at all time highs, something that has never before happened in the history of capital markets! Second, this is also the first time in history when the Fed has aborted a tightening cycle having achieved zero home price easing.
  - Versant's CNBC, 23 August 2024

• Stocks and bonds slammed ahead of Jackson Hole meeting as FedSpeak slows interest rate-cut euphoria
  - Zero Hedge, 22 August 2024

• A dovish Fed on interest rates, and a dismal job-revisions (adjusted down 800,000) send bonds, big-tech, bitcoin, and gold bullion higher
  - Zero Hedge, 21 August 2024

• Minutes of the Fed FOMC show the "vast majority" can agree with an interest rate reduction in September
  - Zero Hedge, 21 August 2024

• Minutes of the Fed FOMC show the "vast majority" can agree with an interest rate reduction in September
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 21 August 2024

• Revision of USA jobs data, down 818,000 jobs, is the second worst revision in USA history, and an election year shocker
  - Zero Hedge, 21 August 2024

• The government of Zhōngguó pleads "please stop buying our bonds". Plunging yields are a symptom of economic weakness that are easier to fix than curing the troubled economy of Zhōngguó.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 21 August 2024

• Catastrophe bonds are anything but for investors. Cat bonds are a kind of insurance-linked security in which returns are tied to the premiums that insurance companies pay to offload some of their risk of loss from large-scale natural disasters. But large-scale disasters happen rarely; in most cases, the bond's principal is returned to investors at maturity, typically after three years. While there are seven to 10 hurricanes a year, only three in the past 20 years have resulted in meaningful cat bond losses.
  - Barron's, 17 August 2024

• It is too early to buy distressed commercial real estate. The argument for buying distressed commercial real estate today is that interest rates are about to come down. But if interest rates come down because of a recession, then buying distressed CRE today is not a good idea. If the economy starts to slow down more meaningfully, as the consensus expects, the problems for rental housing, multifamily, and warehouses will get a lot worse.
  - Apollo Academy, 16 August 2024

• Moody's slashes the credit rating of Mount Sinai Hospital to near 'junk bond' status due to risks with Sinai's Beth Israel hospital system.
  - Murdoch's New York Post, 15 August 2024

• Prices of stocks soar, while bitcoin and bond prices are battered down, on 'fake' data (supposedly retail sales soared in August thanks to massive historical revisions), as the VIX plunges at a record pace
  - Zero Hedge, 15 August 2024

• 10-year Treasury yield tops 3.9% after strong retail sales quiet concern about a slowdown
  - Versant's CNBC, 15 August 2024

• Retail sales surpassed Wall Street's estimates in July, helping ease concerns of a significant slowdown in the US economy. Retail sales rose 1% in July, wihle economists had expected a 0.4% increase in spending.
  - Apollo Global's Yahoo Finance, 15 August 2024

• Consumer spending jumped in July as retail sales were up 1%, much better than predicted
  - Versant's CNBC, 15 August 2024

• Is the USA Treasury manipulating the bond market (by adjusting the maturity profile of its debt issuance) with stealth QE to boost the financial market and economy to help the Democrats win the election in November?
  - Zero Hedge, 14 August 2024

• The central bank of Zhōngguó prepares to conduct stress tests on financial institutions' exposure to bond holdings, in the latest effort to rein in a monthslong rally and prevent fallout risks
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 13 August 2024

• Explaining the 'tail' in Treasury bond auctions. When a US government bond auction is announced, a new when-issued bond starts trading, which allows the market to trade the new Treasury bond before the auction has completed. Such trading activity promotes price discovery and allows the market to trade the government bond before it is available for sale. When the auction is complete, the yield difference between the when-issued bond and the new bond is generally called the tail. Specifically, a one basis point tail means that the auction result was one basis point higher than where the when-issued yield was trading minutes before the auction was completed, normally at 1 PM.
  - Apollo Academy, 12 August 2024

• Gold, bonds and oil soar in price, as stocks swing wildly in price to end unchanged, ahread of a big data week
  - Zero Hedge, 12 August 2024

• Shares of JetBlue Airways drop about 20% after it announced plans to raise about $3.15 billion in capital through separate debt offerings, the majority backed by its loyalty program, TrueBlue, as it tries to improve its liquidity
  - Thomson's Reuters, 12 August 2024

• Shares of bitcoin miner Marathon Digital Holdings drop 7% after it states that it will sell $250 million of convertible senior notes and use the proceeds to buy more bitcoin
  - Bloomberg, 12 August 2024

• Stocks erase the losses from 'Black Monday' as volatility tumbles; bond yields and black gold (oil) surge
  - Zero Hedge, 09 August 2024

• Ugly auction for 30-year Treasury Bonds has biggest tail since November. After yesterday's dire 10-year bond auction, which sent yields surging and stocks tumbling, the last thing the market needed was another debacle of an auction, but that is precisely what it got.
  - Zero Hedge, 08 August 2024

• Yields on 10-year Treasury Bonds rise back above 3.98%, after Wall Street assessed weekly jobless claims data that came in below expectations, and allayed some concerns of a weakening labor market
  - Versant's CNBC, 08 August 2024

• Weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance fall to 233,000, less than expected, in a positive sign for labor market
  - Versant's CNBC, 08 August 2024

• Stocks decline after an ugly auction for 10-year Treasury Bonds, after stock prices rose in the morning
  - Zero Hedge, 07 August 2024

• Warren Buffett now owns more Treasury Bills than the Federal Reserve
  - Versant's CNBC, 07 August 2024

• USA Treasury Bond yields rebounded from one-year lows on Monday after a Federal Reserve official said weaker than expected jobs data for July does not indicate a recession, while solid U.S. services sector activity eased some fears that the United States is heading into an economic downturn
  - Thomson's Reuters, 05 August 2024

• Stocks, crude oil, and Treasury Bond yields plunge in price, as a "growth scare" sparks a surge in hopes that the Fed will increase interest rates soon, hopefully at least 4 times in the rest of 2024
  - Zero Hedge, 02 August 2024

• Credit ratings were meant to help sub-Saharan countries tap global investors to fund much-needed development. But low scores, heavy borrowing and bad luck have left many struggling with crushing bond debt
  - Thomson's Reuters, 01 August 2024

• Bonds and gold soar in July amid a 'dot-com style' collapse in crowded Big Tech trades
  - Zero Hedge, 31 July 2024

• The central bank of Nihon confirms a $37 billion intervention in the currency markets as a weak yen pushes the Bank of Nihon to increase interest rates
  - Versant's CNBC, 31 July 2024

• The central bank of Nihon increases a key interest rate to 0.25%, hours before the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate intentions. The central bank of Nihon will also reduce by 50% its buying of bonds each month to about $20 billion.
  - Bloomberg, 31 July 2024

• This week, the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50%, but is expected to signal that an interest rate reduction will occur in September
  - Zero Hedge, 31 July 2024

• Three reasons not to buy long-term Treasury Bonds: the Fed is no hurry to reduce interest rates (pushes up bond prices), any rate reductions won't affect long-term bonds, and short-term bonds are a better way to build a bond portfolio
  - Morningstar, 29 July 2024

• The USA Treasury estimates that it needs to sell $1.3 trillion in Treasury Bonds for the remainder of 2024 to fund the USA government
  - Zero Hedge, 29 July 2024

• Venezuela's bonds and those of state oil firm PDVSA fell deeper into distressed territory (some below 15 cents to the dollar) on Monday, after President Nicolas Maduro stole the latest presidential elections
  - Thomson's Reuters, 29 July 2024

• Investors gobble up bonds that can turn into stocks. Lyft, Snap and others are raising money by issuing convertible bonds.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 29 July 2024

• More regional banks in the USA are selling some of the underwater bonds at a loss. They are not selling lower-yielding securities to pay depositors. Instead they are preparing for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Some cash from these sales is being used to buy new bonds that lenders hope will perform well as rates come down in the coming months or years. The Fed is expected to start cutting rates as early as September.
  - Apollo Global's Yahoo Finance, 28 July 2024

• Ten-year government bond yields in Zhōngguó hit record lows of 2.17%, testing the patience of the central bank of Zhōngguó. Recent interest rate cuts by the central bank to boost a flailing economy have undermined its efforts to guide longer-dated bond yields higher.
  - Bloomberg, 26 July 2024

• A hedge fund study that said the USA Treasury last year effectively provided economic stimulus by moderating long-dated bond sales has sparked a debate in the bond market and a denial from the U.S. Treasury that said it was not aiming for such an effect. The USA Treasury Department announced in November it would slow the pace of auction size increases of long-dated debt securities, a move that gave relief to bond markets rattled by previous increases in long-term debt supply. This led to a decline in 10-year Treasury yields equivalent to the economic stimulus that would be provided by a one percentage point reduction in the Fed's policy rate, according to a study published by Hudson Bay Capital Management.
  - Thomson's Reuters, 26 July 2024

• $80,000,000 - Six banks including Bank of America, UBS, Nomura and Citigroup agreed to pay $80 million to settle antitrust litigation in New York accusing them of conspiring to rig prices of European government bonds
  - Thomson's Reuters, 26 July 2024

• Should you prefer stocks or bonds? The indicators are biased up towards buying bonds.
  - Mark Rzepczynski blog, 23 July 2024

• Strong demand for 2-year Treasury Bonds from foreign buyers forces down bond yields
  - Zero Hedge, 23 July 2024

• How Wall Street keeps absorbing the borrowing fiscal insanity of the federal government. Demand for safety and bond yield has supported the price of Treasury Bonds, despite a huge supply increase.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 17 July 2024

• Inflation, not Trump, is driving the steepening of the yield-curve in the USA steepening... and there is more to come
  - Zero Hedge, 15 July 2024

• Financial institutions snapping up government bonds in Zhōngguó are basically shorting the economy of Zhōngguó, Zhōngguó's central bank-backed Financial News reported on Saturday. The report is the latest warning to Zhōngguó bond market after the People's Bank of Zhōngguó sounded concerns and introduced plans to sell treasury bonds to cool a bond rally.
  - Thomson's Reuters, 13 July 2024

• The BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity (BUIDL) fund has reached a $500 million market cap, making it the first tokenized treasury fund to reach this milestone
  - Zero Hedge, 12 July 2024

• The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds decline after June CPI statistics unexpectedly decrease by 0.1%, though Core CPI increased 0.2% in June
  - Versant's CNBC, 11 July 2024

• The consumer price index, a broad measure of costs for goods and services across the U.S. economy, declined 0.1% from May, putting the 12-month rate at 3%, around its lowest level in more than three years. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core CPI increased 0.1 % monthly and 3.3% from a year ago, compared to respective forecasts for 0.2% and 3.4%, according to the report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  - Versant's CNBC, 11 July 2024

• Saudi Arabia threatened to sell European bonds if assets of Rossiya were confiscated to help undermine Rossiya's invasion of Ukraine, the Saudis choosing the more oil-rich country to support
  - Zero Hedge, 10 July 2024

• Paper money - the USA dollar and USA Treasury bonds - are hardly scarce, too many actually, and that is why gold beats both
  - InvestorPlace, 09 July 2024

• Local governments in Zhōngguó need debt relief, an academic argues, supporting the use of national government bonds to ease local debt burdens. As local governments in Zhōngguó suffer under the weight of debt, a former adviser to the central bank has called for treasury bonds to ease the burden.
  - Alibaba's South China Morning Post, 08 July 2024

• The precipitous fall of the yen of Nihon. The yen recently fell below 160 yen to the USA dollar, its lowest value in more than 30 years. One main reason is the different in interest rates set by the Bank of Nihon and the USA Federal Reserve.
  - Warner Brothers CNN, 07 July 2024

• It is time to lock in yields before interest rates drop. Cash will become less attractive when the Federal Reserve finally begins cutting rates.
  - Barron's, 06 July 2024

• The strong USA dollar spells opportunity for investors. Quality corporate bonds, mortgage-backed securities, and overseas stocks look attractive at these lofty levels for the currency.
  - Barron's, 06 July 2024

• The increasing likelihood of a second Trump administration has helped spark a steep selloff in USA government bonds, pushing up bond yields.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 05 July 2024

• Stocks, bonds and gold soar in price amid political panic and a macro meltdown on a holiday-shortened day
  - Zero Hedge, 03 July 2024

• Money is rushing into the government bonds of Zhōngguó, sending their prices soaring and yields plunging to record lows as investors hunt for a safer alternative to the ravaged real estate market and volatile stocks of Zhōngguó. The yield on Zhōngguó's onshore 10-year government bond, which is a benchmark for a wide range of interest rates, touched 2.18% on Monday, the lowest since 2002 when records began. Yields on 20-year and 30-year bonds are also hovering around historic lows.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 03 July 2024

• Attempts by Zhōngguó to rein in the rally in government bonds will only slow it temporarily, an analyst predicts. "The yields have been trending down for most of this year, mainly because the market is not so optimistic about the growth outlook."
  - Alibaba's South China Morning Post, 02 July 2024

• The $1.3 trillion collateralized loan obligation market is about to become a victim of its own success because managers cannot create the bonds fast enough to meet demand and are running out of things to buy. A slowdown in mergers and acquisitions after borrowing costs rose is continuing to deprive the lenders of the leveraged loans that the industry was built on. That may soon end up impacting the equity arbitrage -- the gap between the yields that CLO managers can earn on the loans they buy and the bonds they sell -- which may hurt new issuance in the coming months. It is also sent more managers into the secondary market, where about 60% of loans now trade above par, making it that much harder to find bargains to put together a portfolio.
  - Bloomberg, 29 June 2024

• Government bonds sold by Bharat are set to be included in JPMorgan's emerging market government bond index from Friday. About $20 billion to $40 billion is now expected to flow into the country, chasing limited supply. Over the past few weeks, bond yields have fallen to around 7%, near all-time lows, the chase pushing the yields lower.
  - Versant's CNBC, 28 June 2024

• Bond markets predict interest rates could stay higher for longer, maybe forever. Forward contracts referencing the five-year interest rate in the next five years -- a proxy for the market's view of where USA rates might end up -- have stalled at 3.6%. While that is down from last year's peak of 4.5%, it is still more than one full percentage higher than the average over the past decade and above the Fed's own estimate of 2.75%. This matters because it means the market is pricing in a much more elevated floor for yields.
  - Bloomberg, 24 June 2024

• "This cannot go on forever": explaining the USA debt crisis in simple terms. In the next recession, the USA will enter a debt spiral - needing to issue more bonds to pay for bigger deficits, which pushes up interest rates, which leads to bigger deficits
  - Zero Hedge, 23 June 2024

• What economic impact would a Trump presidency have? A universal tariff would lead to a rebound of inflation in 2025. Recent simulations, which include retaliation by the EU and Zhōngguó, suggest a more prolonged inflationary effect extending into 2026 and an adverse effect on US GDP growth in 2026. If the Republicans also get control of the Senate and the House of Representatives, reduced immigration and tax cuts could reinforce the inflationary impact from the universal tariff.
  - Zero Hedge, 23 June 2024

• If you can't beat high mortgage rates, consider joining them. A high cost to borrow is also resulting in higher yields for investors in some mortgage bonds.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 22 June 2024

• Making money in the $4 trillion municipal bond market is harder than ever after a two-decade long drop in underwriting markups pinched bottom lines, contributing to pullback by major Wall Street firms such as Citigroup and UBS Group AG. Profits for municipal underwriters fell by 30% to 50% from 2005 to 2023.
  - Bloomberg, 21 June 2024

• Nihon to issue bonds with shorter maturities as Bank of Nihon begins tapering quantitative easing
  - Zero Hedge, 19 June 2024

• $14,000,000,000 - Norinchukin, a giant bank in Nihon, will liquidate $63 billion in Treasuries and European bonds to plug massive (2.2 trillion yen - about $14 billion) unrealized losses on its bonds
  - Zero Hedge, 18 June 2024

• Bitcoin, oil and Big Tech jump to start the week, despite bond yields rising and lower expectactions of pumping interest rate reductions
  - Zero Hedge, 17 June 2024

• A big bond rally is promising some help for home buyers. The sharp rise in bond prices has pushed down the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, a benchmark for mortgage rates and other borrowing costs across the economy.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 17 June 2024

• Stocks in France tumble to worst week in two years over election fears. Investors worry about a possible debt crisis in the country as polls show the far right could be brought to the brink of power in less than a month.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 15 June 2024

• Bond market traders in the USA are worried market liquidity will keep deteriorating as the U.S. Treasury continues to issue large amounts of debt to back deficit spending while dealers struggle to keep up with the ballooning size of the market. The intermediation capacity of traders is constrained because of higher capital requirements that discourage banks from holding large positions.
  - Thomson's Reuters, 14 June 2024

• Another day, another push to give many millions to multimillionaires. These subsidies to build new stadiums for billionaires is complete economic nonsense -- "billionaries using public funds to build a private playground for the rich and powerful". The 'economic impact studies' n which stadium subsidies are based have another name: lies.
  - Am. Inst. Economic Research, 14 June 2024

• A federal appeals court said Puerto Rico bondholders have collateral rights over revenue generated by its bankrupt public power utility, a ruling that could delay and possibly upend a planned $10 billion debt restructuring
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 14 June 2024

• A stellar 30-year Treasury Bond auction sends 10-year bond yield to three month low. What went as high as 4.70% in late April is now coming down just as fast.
  - Zero Hedge, 13 June 2024

• LTCM collapsed in 1998, not because of excessive intelligence, but excessive leverage with stock/bond/currency/derivatives leveraging. Is history repeating itself? Is leverage and arbitrage the reason why the yield curve has remained inverted for one of the longest periods in history? Currently, the FED is issuing a massive amount of short-dated paper. The market shorts it, buys the long end, for an extremely small gain. A gain that only appears profitable because of an irrational amount of leverage. All to make a 'normal' annualized profit. Leverage that has been speculated to be in the 300%+ range!! Have we created an inversion that cannot un-invert because a large swath of the market is drunk off 0.3% yields that is levered several hundred percent?
  - Zero Hedge, 13 June 2024

• Inflation eases in May as consumer prices rise at slower than expected pace, with no rise in one month, and up 3.3% since last May.
  - Apollo Global's Yahoo Finance, 12 June 2024

• Consumer prices hold at record highs - up 20% since Biden elected. But Core CPI fell to its lowest since April 2021.
  - Zero Hedge, 12 June 2024

• The Dow rises 300 points and the SP500 hits a record high, after inflation slowed in May, sending Treasury Bond yields tumbling before the Federal Reserve's June interest-rate decision
  - Versant's CNBC, 12 June 2024

• Bond investors are paying up again for active fund managers. About 74% of active funds beat their benchmarks in the past 12 months.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 12 June 2024

• Treasury Bond yields jump to one-week high after an ugly 3-year bond auction
  - Zero Hedge, 10 June 2024

• The plans of the USA to fix its economy is going to 'screw over' the rest of the world. The problem is if the Fed doesn't reduce interest rates as other central banks are reducing interest rates. Money will flow from the rest of the world to the USA to buy Treasury Bonds.
  - Business Insider, 09 June 2024

• Traders of USA Treasury Bonds had their hopes for a bond rally dashed by surprise strength in the labor market in the USA that raised odds the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer
  - Bloomberg, 07 June 2024

• Credit Suisse bondholders sue Switzerland in the USA over $17 billion writedown of AT1 debt
  - Versant's CNBC, 07 June 2024

• Several economic and financial market metrics suggest that bond yields are too high: diverging up from commodities prices and GDP growth and bond volatility
  - Paulsen Perspectives, 05 June 2024

• Goldman Sachs predicts that long-term bond yields are about to spike up again
  - Zero Hedge, 05 June 2024

• The financial arrogance, incompetence and crime of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen: when interest rates were under 1%, she could have refinanced US debt with 100-year Treasury Bonds issued at these low interest rates (which many countries and companies did). She refused, and is now refinancing shorter-term US Treasury Bonds at much higher interest rates, stealing trillions from USA taxpayers - though rewarding her masters on Wall Street.
  - Daily Caller, 04 June 2024

• Bond prices and bitcoin rise in price (but not stocks) as 'bad' news jolts interest rate reductions back to life
  - Zero Hedge, 04 June 2024

• The great bull market in bonds began in 1984. Is a reverse in the future? 30-year bond rates fell from 15% in 1982 to less than 1% in 2020. They are now back to near 5%, and could go higher.
  - Barron's, 01 June 2024

• Treasury Bond yields soar as hopes plunge for interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve - stocks, oil and gold are sold, while Nvidia hits a record new high
  - Zero Hedge, 29 May 2024

• Treasury Bond yields spike to session highs after a sub-par auction of 7-year Treasury bonds
  - Zero Hedge, 29 May 2024

• Zero-percent down mortages are once again available. What could go wrong, other than everything like the last time.
  - Zero Hedge, 29 May 2024

• BlackRock adds own bitcoin ETF to income stock and bond funds. Blackrock's income and bond-focused funds have bought shares of the asset manager's own spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the first quarter, regulatory filings show.
  - Zero Hedge, 29 May 2024

• BlackRock surpasses Grayscale as the largest ETF for bitcoins in the world
  - Zero Hedge, 28 May 2024

• It wasn't quite as ugly the dismal 2Y auction earlier today but it was still ugly. Moments ago the US Treasury sold $70BN in 5Yr paper, tying the record for biggest auction for this maturity set last month, in what was another subpar sale. The high yield of 4.553% was below last month's 4.659% but it still tailed the When Issue 4.540% by 1.3bps, the biggest tail since January.
  - Zero Hedge, 28 May 2024

• How the world got into $315 trillion of debt, much of which is owed by Nihon and the USA. Public debt is $91 trillion, close to 100% of global GDP.
  - Versant's CNBC, 27 May 2024

• Central banks of many countries are selling USA Treasury Bonds, and using some proceeds to buy more gold, to distance themselves more from the huge debts of the USA
  - Zero Hedge, 26 May 2024

• USA Treasury Bills are the best place to invest your cash. Just ask Warren Buffett. Their 5%-plus yield looks attractive -- especially with the Federal Reserve unlikely to cut interest rates soon.
  - Barron's, 25 May 2024

• The yield curve is inverted -- but there is still no recession. Why?
  - Barron's, 25 May 2024

• Los bonos de Colombia caen tras las alertas del Presidente Petro sobre el techo de deuda
  - La Republica, 24 May 2024

• For the first time since the 2008 global financial crisis due to criminally leveraged real estate bonds, holders now of AAA 'CRE-backed' bonds are hit with losses. "Now that we've seen the first commercial mortgage-backed securities get hit, other AAA bonds are bound to see losses."
  - Zero Hedge, 24 May 2024

• CFOs lock in savings with interest-rate swaps amid uncertainty about Fed rate cuts. Some companies are saving millions of dollars by entering into interest-rate swaps as they confront the possibility it could be a while before the Federal Reserve cuts rates.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 24 May 2024

• The price of new 30-year government bonds in Zhōngguó have been volatile since their recent debut, as small investors pile into a bet seen as safer than the the property and equities markets in hōngguó.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 24 May 2024

• The price of new 30-year government bonds in Zhōngguó has whipsawed since their recent debut, as small investors pile into a bet seen as safer than the the property and equities markets in hōngguó.
  - Alibaba's South China Morning Post, 24 May 2024

• Alibaba's bond sale is "oversubscribed". Alibaba is selling $5 billion of convertible bonds to fund buybacks
  - Alibaba's South China Morning Post, 24 May 2024

• Stocks fade as the market pump, after Nvidia's earnings report, withers, and as 'hot' PMI data causes bond yields to rise
  - Zero Hedge, 23 May 2024

• Ten-year government bonds in Nihon rise above 1% for the first time sicne 2013
  - Zero Hedge, 22 May 2024

• The global bond market is on the verge of a selloff as commodities reawaken. The broadening commodity rally threatens to feed into global inflation and kickstart another bond selloff.
  - Zero Hedge, 22 May 2024

• Nippon Life Insurance, the largest insurer in Nihon by asset size, is planning to invest more in foreign credit markets, looking to diversify its portfolio even as key domestic yields hover at decade highs.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 17 May 2024

• Sporting events are great, but what is not great - but waste - is subsidies for sports stadiums that benefit the rich, often billionaires, a benefit paid by much poorer taxpayers
  - Cato News, 15 May 2024

• A soft CPI report and sloppy sales spark run to record highs for stocks, bonds, gold and bitcoin
  - Zero Hedge, 15 May 2024

• Stocks, bonds, gold and bitcoin soar in price as hopes for interest rate cuts rise on small CPI miss
  - Zero Hedge, 15 May 2024

• The latest CPI report shows that inflation eased in April, with consumer prices rising 3.4% from one year ago
  - Versant's CNBC, 15 May 2024

• Bnod yields decline, and could drop further if today's CPI figure is low
  - Zero Hedge, 15 May 2024

• Spreads have collapsed across the board, from investment-grade and junk bonds to collateralized loan obligations. The extra yield investors get for owning US high-grade corporate debt instead of government bonds is the lowest in two-and-a-half years.
  - Zero Hedge, 07 May 2024

• The perils of the vast Treasury and mortgage-backed bond holdings of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is shedding assets, quantitative tightening, at a glacial pace, exposing the financial system to continuing risks. It is selling about $60 billion a month of bonds, while owning over $7 trillion. The policy is affecting financial markets now and making living conditions harder for millions of people -- putting upward pressure on the Treasury and mortgage markets and a host of related interest rates, effectively supplementing the monetary tightening that the Fed put in place by raising the short-term federal funds rate.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 06 May 2024

• Stock pump'n'dump as the Fed 'ease' balance-sheet pressure. The bigger than expected QT taper announcement juiced markets (stocks and bond prices up, dollar down) into Powell's press conference, then got spooked lower as he admitted "inflation has shown a lack of further progress ... and gaining confidence to cut will take longer than thought." But that dip didn't last long and yields puked, stocks soared, gold rallied and the dollar puked. By the close, all of Powell's pig-kissing lipstick had been wiped off (see below for the coordinated crypto/nasdaq take-down) as stocks saw solid gains erased in the hour after Powell stopped speaking... Small Caps and The Dow managed to hold on to the gains but Nasdaq and S&P closed nearer the day's lows.
  - Zero Hedge, 01 May 2024

• The Fed maintains interest rates steady, noting lack of progress on inflation. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged for a sixth straight meeting and suggested that rates would stay high for longer.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 01 May 2024

• The Fed says that inflation progress has stalled and extends wait-and-see rate stance. The central bank officials also approved a plan to slow the continuing reduction of their $7.4 trillion asset portfolio.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 01 May 2024

• The significant rise in gold and silver prices if yet to start, as the national debt of the USA and massive Treasury Bond issuance will worsen inflation
  - Von Greyerz Gold, 29 April 2024

• Even if the Fed reduces interest rates, the days of ultralow rates are over. Soaring budget deficits and investment needs mean ther 'neutral' interest rate may be higher.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 29 April 2024

• Soaring yields of USA Treasury Bonds challenge stock-market gains. New signs of lingering inflation have driven yields to the highest levels of the year.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 29 April 2024

• A steady rise in bond prices in Zhōngguó hints are a challenge for the yuan in the future. The bond rally seems unstoppable amid a shortage of quality assets for investments. From government bonds to corporate debentures, traders keep hunting for yields in all maturities.
  - Zero Hedge, 29 April 2024

• Bonds have had a wild ride. The roller coaster is coming to a stop. The path forward for the Fed has narrowed considerably. You put bonds to bed until after the election, Harley Bassman writes in a guest commentary.
  - Barron's, 27 April 2024

• If 10-year Treasury Bond yields break above 5%, the bond market enters especially dangerous territory, endangering industries like the automotive market and commercial real estate that depend heavily on debt. With no good options, the Fed will be forced to print money one way or another to stimulate borrowing, turning an inflationary creek of their own making into a raging river of dollar destruction.
  - Schiff Gold, 26 April 2024

• Sovereign bond yields in Zhōngguó have been falling in recent months, in marked contrast to almost every other major country. This is a key macro variable to watch for signs that Zhōngguó is ready to ease policy more comprehensively as its tolerance is tested for an economy that is becoming increasingly deflationary. Further, vigilance should be increased for a yuan devaluation. Though not a base case, the tail-risk of one occurring is rising.
  - Zero Hedge, 25 April 2024

• Shares of Boeing drop 7% after Moody's downgrades Boeing's credit rating to one notch above 'junk' (from Baa3 to Baa2)
  - Zero Hedge, 24 April 2024

• As the Federal Reserve and the Treasury - implicitly or otherwise - increasingly coordinate their actions, it is bad for bond prices
  - Zero Hedge, 23 April 2024

• A recent jump in the yields of USA government bond has left investors pondering whether the 10-year Treasury yield could reach 5% as expectations for interest-rate cuts continue to be scaled back
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 23 April 2024

• Ray Dalio's risk-parity hedge fund has mostly trailed a simple 60/40 portofolio in the last five years. Such hedge funds have had clients withdraw $70 billion in the last three years.
  - Bloomberg, 22 April 2024

• National debt is important: why it is time to position into countries with low outstanding debt
  - Bnod Vigilantes, 21 April 2024

• How not to invest in the bond market. Investors bought billions of long-term USA government bonds last year. Right on cue, the market tanked -- again.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 20 April 2024

• BOXX, an ETF launched in December 2022, uses a low-risk options strategy known as 'box spreads' to generate returns that match those of short-term Treasury bills, but it does not actually distribute any income. That allows investors who hold the fund for at least a year to pay a long-term capital-gains rate when they sell, as opposed to the income-tax rate. For people in the top federal bracket, that is a difference between being taxed 37% at the federal level or 20%.
  - Barron's, 20 April 2024

• Pension funds are selling hundreds of billions of dollars of stocks, and buying bonds
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 19 April 2024

• Huge Treasury Bond wagers make some hedge funds "too-big-to-fail", the IMF warns. "A concentration of vulnerability has built up, as a handful of highly leveraged funds account for most of the short positions in Treasury futures ... could affect the broader financial system."
  - Zero Hedge, 18 April 2024

• Zhōngguó sells more US Treasury Bonds as the odds of interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve become unlikely in 2024
  - Alibaba's South China Morning Post, 18 April 2024

• The Treasury Bond market is nearing levels that risk triggering a large selloff, pushing yields on 10-year bonds back to 5%, predicts Vanguard. "Even a small move higher -- psat the critical level of 4.75% - could force investors to abandon their bets on a rally in bond prices, giving way to a wave of selling that could push yields toward the highs of 2007.
  - Zero Hedge, 18 April 2024

• For the past few years, central banks have greatly slowed purchase of USA Treasury Bonds, and bought gold (including buying gold from ETFs)
  - Zero Hedge, 18 April 2024

• USA Treasury Bonds are getting harder to sell. Record issuance raises worries that debt sales will exacerbate volatility. A series of weak auctions for U.S. Treasurys are stoking concerns of investors that markets will struggle to absorb an incoming rush of government debt.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 15 April 2024

• With low recession risk, there is no need to own Treasuries for those that do not have to, and with increasingly entrenched inflation, there is little reason not to short them as yields rise.
  - Zero Hedge, 11 April 2024

• The Fed prepares slower pace of runoff for $7.4 trillion "fairly soon". Officials have been allowing $60 billion in Treasurys to mature every month, but could lower that amount.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 11 April 2024

• It is oddly fitting that in a time when the interest on US debt just hit a record $1.1 trillion, that the US deficit for just the first six months of fiscal 2024 is also $1.1 trillion
  - Zero Hedge, 10 April 2024

• Bond yields soar. Stopping at a high yield of 4.560%, this was not only almost 40bps higher than last month's 4.166% and the highest since October, it also tailed the 4.529% When Issued by a whopping 3.1bps, a surge compared to last month's tail of just 0.9bps, but also the highest tail since the 3.7bps in Dec 2022 and also the third largest tail on record!
  - Zero Hedge, 10 April 2024

• Surveying the market carnage after the latest CPI report. Expectations for Fed action have collapsed - now less than two initerst rate-cuts priced in for 2024.
  - Zero Hedge, 10 April 2024

• Consumer prices rose 3.5% from a year ago in March, more than expected, making an acceleration for inflation. Following the report, traders pushed the first expected interest rate cut out to September.
  - Versant's CNBC, 10 April 2024

• After the CPI report, the major stock indexes dropped over 1% with the Dow down over 500 points, as Treasury Bond yields rise with the 10-year above 4.5%
  - Versant's CNBC, 10 April 2024

• 10-year Treasury yield jumps back above 4.5% after March inflation tops estimates
  - Versant's CNBC, 10 April 2024

• A disappointing auction of 3-year Treasury Bonds, as investors wait for Wednesday's inflation data.
  - Zero Hedge, 09 April 2024

• Treasury Bond yields to stay elevated as inflation emboldens short bond trade
  - Zero Hedge, 08 April 2024

• As bond yields continue to rise, when will it start to hurt stock prices? At 4.8% for bond yields, the equity bull market is at risk.
  - Zero Hedge, 08 April 2024

• Survey data shows that outright shorts in US Treasuries are near lows. But investors are missing a trick as inflation risks point to higher bond volatility and yields.
  - Zero Hedge, 08 April 2024

• Behind today's stellar jobs print: it was literally all part-time jobs (and illegals). Since March 2023, the number of full-time workers has collapsed by 1.347 million while the number of part-time workers exploded by 1.888 million!
  - Zero Hedge, 05 April 2024

• Bond yields are correct to assume jobs market has not yet cracked. The widening gap between household employment and payrolls is causing concern the weaker message from the household survey is the more accurate.
  - Zero Hedge, 05 April 2024

• March jobs report comes in 'red-hot' at 303,000, above highest esimate as unemployment rate drops. As we wrote in our preview, while big data hinted at a weaker than expected March jobs print, the relentless influx of immigrants would lead to a hotter than expected payrolls number.
  - Versant's CNBC, 05 April 2024

• Job growth zoomed in March as payrolls jumped by 303,000 and unemployment dropped to 3.8%. THis strength of the economy is one more reason the Fed won't rush to reduce interest rates in 2024.
  - Versant's CNBC, 05 April 2024

• The Federal Reserve cleans up its money-printing mess. The Fed continues to reduce its assets to undo its huge bond purchases during the covid-19 pandemic. It hopes that a less-for-longer approach will ultimately leave it with a smaller balance-sheet than would otherwise be the case.
  - Economist, 04 April 2024

• Volatility in interest rates in the USA and bond markets is poised to move much higher as it re-attaches to underlying fundamentals. That means higher rates and greater stock volatility, leaving especially high-duration sectors such as tech exposed to underperformance and potential downside.
  - Zero Hedge, 04 April 2024

• Investors long bonds (assuming bond prices are going up, yields done) start selling their bonds as an upturn in bond yields becomes undeniable. Positioning in US Treasuries is becoming less long as the risk of persistently higher yields increases from a cyclically strong US and global economy.
  - Zero Hedge, 03 April 2024

• $48,200,000 - Trump's bond benefactor, Don Hankey, earned billions from subprime car loans. In 2015, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau ordered two of his companies, Westlake Services L.L.C. and Wilshire Consumer Credit, to refund customers $44 million and pay a $4.2 million fine for deceiving customers
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 02 April 2024

• Knight Speciality Insurance agrees to issue a bond of $175 million to Trump to allow Trump to appeal a conviction for business fraud
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 02 April 2024

• Knight Speciality Insurance is known for providing high-interest loans to car buyers with bad credit histories - subprime auto loans.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 02 April 2024

• The central bank of Zhōngguó remains "cautious" in its purchase of government bonds, despite orders from President Xi Jinping. Analysts say bank wants to avoid large-scale intrusion into bond markets, prevent perceptions of quantitative easing or heavy-handedness.
  - Alibaba's South China Morning Post, 29 March 2024

• In rare monetary policy shift, President Xi Jinping tells the central bank of Zhōngguó to buy treasury bonds. President Xi has told financial cadres that their monetary policy toolkit must include a controversial means of injecting liquidity into the economy of Zhōngguó -- a policy that has not been used in two decades.
  - Zero Hedge, 28 March 2024

• How Fed announcements are now changing the direction of the price of gold (in the past, gold correlated with 10-year bond yields)
  - Political Calculations, 26 March 2024

• PIMCO CIO Andrew Balls told The FT that the giant bond fund is holding a smaller than usual position in US Treasuries, preferring the bonds of countries such as the UK and Canada, as he fears re-igniting inflation will pressure The Fed to act considerably less dovish than even the latest 'dot-plot' suggests.
  - Zero Hedge, 26 March 2024

• Bond prices in Argentina increase due the reforms of the new president. The bond market likes Javier Melei's plan to fix the economy while legislators are less enthused. The president is now working on another plan.
  - Barron's, 23 March 2024

• The 'Powell put' sparks surge in stocks, bonds, & the dollar; gold and oil flat for week
  - Zero Hedge, 22 March 2024

• A surge in defaults of junk bonds continues in 2024. In 2023, such defaults increased by 80%. Meanwhile, debts that were financed in a low-interest rate environment are due to mature in the next few years, to the tune of over $1.8 trillion by 2028 according to the Fed. When those payments come due, more companies will fall to the default wave. And if the junk bond market goes off of a cliff, it could pop the broader $13.7 trillion corporate bond bubble and take the rest of the economy with it.
  - Zero Hedge, 19 March 2024

• Trump is rejected by 30 insurance companies as he seeks a $454 million bond that he needs to appeal a civial fraud penalty in New York
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 19 March 2024

• The effects will not happen quickly as Nihon ends selling is bonds with negative interest rates. The long-term effects of positive rates could be profound -- on everything from mortgage rates to U.S. government finances.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 19 March 2024

• Big Tech and oil surge in price, as bond pricesand bitcoin decline in price, all ahead of the next Fed meeting
  - Zero Hedge, 18 March 2024

• The price of gold remains steady, despite high USA Treasury Bond yields, as traders focus on Fed policy, where a hawkish stance could potentially impact gold prices while bolstering the dollar
  - FX Street, 18 March 2024

• $1 trillion in 2024 maturities of commerical real estate debt could lead to hundreds of bank failures
  - Zero Hedge, 18 March 2024

• The booming private-credit market has delayed a recession, but the US is still at risk of a sharp downturn, chief strategist says. The only reason a recession has yet to occur, given all of the warning signs, is because of the booming $1.7 trillion private-credit market, which is now bigger than both the high-yield-bond and leveraged-loan markets.
  - Business Insider, 16 March 2024

• The Energy Department is moving forward on a deal to provide a $2.3 billion loan to Lithium Americas in an effort to shore up domestic supplies of a mineral vital for the production of electric vehicles. They are so unreliable that they couldn't get a loan from a bank?
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 15 March 2024

• The Energy Department is moving forward on a deal to provide a $2.3 billion loan to Lithium Americas in an effort to shore up domestic supplies of a mineral vital for the production of electric vehicles. They are so unreliable that they couldn't get a loan from a bank?
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 15 March 2024

• 'Bad economic news' is finanally bad economic news for stocks, bonds prices, crypto, and gold, all down for the day. A lof of macro bad news... Softer-than-expected Retail Sales, hotter-than-expected Producer Prices, Jobless Claims up (from dramatically revised-down levels)... sending lower expectations of interest rate-reductions by the Fed (the market's favorite cocaine).
  - Zero Hedge, 14 March 2024

• Fed liquidity is facilitating market's inflation fantasy. Still, the market can avoid these dawning inflation risks as liquidity conditions continue to be asset friendly. Despite ongoing QT and Fed balance-sheet contraction, reserves in the system keep rising.
  - Zero Hedge, 14 March 2024

• Corporate bond issuance is booming -- but not sustainability-linked bonds. With its rate tied to meeting certain goals, issuance of this ESG-linked debt has tanked. Some say the SEC's new emissions-disclosure rule might eventually spur demand.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 14 March 2024

• Stellar auction of 30-year Treasury Bonds sees biggest stop through since January 2023
  - Zero Hedge, 13 March 2024

• Ugly, tailing auction of 10-year Treasury bonds sees lowest foreign demand of 2024
  - Zero Hedge, 12 March 2024

• Inside one of the most ridiculous jobs reports in recent history: a record 1.2 million immigrant jobs added in one month. Since February 2023, the USA has lost 284,000 full-time jobs, while gaining 921,000 part-time jobs (who are paid less benefits). And whil 2.4 million native-born Americans since December 2023 have lost their jobs, in February 1.2 million foreign-born workers/immigranted obtained jobs (because they are paid less).
  - Zero Hedge, 08 March 2024

• New jobs in February soar by 275,000, smashing estimates, but can we believe, after January revisions are sharply lower (from blowout of 353,000 down 35% to 229,000), and unemployment rate jumps to 2 year high. February job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.
  - Zero Hedge, 08 March 2024

• Payroll report in the USA can send dollar and Treasury bonds in opposite direction. Another robust showing in US non-farm payrolls could reignite the ascent of the dollar while prompting a decline in Treasuries heading into the weekend.
  - Zero Hedge, 08 March 2024

• Total borrowing by governments in rich countries is set to hit a record high of $15.8 trillion this year, with the cost of making interest payments rising over coming years as bonds issued before the inflation surge mature.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 08 March 2024

• How immoral is it that banks extend loans to governments? They don't lend to startups because it is too risky, but so are governments. A bank is not evaluating the creditworthiness of the government but of the people whom the government allegedly serves, as it is they who are ultimately on the hook. But is it the citizens' creditworthiness that is actually analyzed? This is where the risk really kicks in. And banks are lending deposits of businesspeople to governments that often destroy these businesses ability to survive.
  - Real Clear Markets, 06 March 2024

• Zhōngguó will issue the equivalent of $139 billion in special ultralong bonds this year, part of plans to boost business activity and achieve its ambitious economic growth target of around 5% for 2024.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 06 March 2024

• Eye-catching jump in inflation expectations threatens bonds, and will put upward pressure on yields
  - Zero Hedge, 01 March 2024

• Ten reasons the Federal Reserve will not reduce interest rates in 2024
  - Zero Hedge, 01 March 2024

• Shortly after a disappointing ISM Manufacturing report (which started yields falling), Fed Governor Christopher Waller (quietly) dropped quite a bombshell on markets for those that were paying attention. Waller is hinting at an 'Operation Reverse-Twist' which will lower short-term yields and steepen the yield curve.
  - Zero Hedge, 01 March 2024

• Treasury Bond yields hit session high as bonds slump after record 5-year bond auction tails
  - Zero Hedge, 26 February 2024

• Ugly 2-year Treasury Bond auction tails as size jumps to record $63 billion
  - Zero Hedge, 26 February 2024

• Target-date funds are not carefree. The bond debate. Some investment managers say that using passive bond indexes for target-date funds makes them more volatile when interest rates gyrate.
  - Barron's, 24 February 2024

• A day after a New York court ruling that the laws of Venezuela would determine the validity of bonds issued by state-run PDVSA oil company, Bloomberg reports that bonds have "collapsed", slumping on questions over their validity. At stake is $2 billion in PDVSA bonds, and PDVSA notes dropped 17 cents following the ruling on Teusday, according to Bloomberg.
  - OilPrice.com, 21 February 2024

• The USA Treasury sold 20Y paper with disastrous metrics which sent yields sharply higher across the board. The high yield of 4.595% was well above last month's 4.423% but worse, it tailed the When Issued 4.562% by a whopping 3.30bps, which was the biggest tail on record for the tenor since the 20Y auction was introduced in May 2020.
  - Zero Hedge, 21 February 2024

• A troubling consequence of massive spending: the mounting costs of the national debt of the USA, which in an era of high interest rates, adds over $1 trillion/year to the national deficit
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 17 February 2024

• Destin Jenkins, the Stanford professor of history, who is attacking racism in the $4 trillion market for municipal bonds. He is reporting on how municipal bonds have contributed to inequality in American cities.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 16 February 2024

• The bear-steppening of the bond yield curve (longer-term yields rising more than shorter-term ones) predicts trouble for financial markets. The steepening could indicate that liquidity and money velocity are in jeopardy from rising government interest payments, and that funding markets are approaching the point where reserves could shift from abundant to scarce abruptly.
  - Zero Hedge, 15 February 2024

• Stocks, bonds and gold plummet after the latest CPI numbers remain high, further dampening hopes that the Fed will reduce interest rates in the near future
  - Zero Hedge, 13 February 2024

• Hotter-than-expected inflation clouds interest rate-cut outlook. Inflation declined slightly to 3.1% in January, while underlying prices ticked up slightly more than expected.
  - Zero Hedge, 13 February 2024

• Expectations were for a big drop in the YoY consumer price index (from +3.4% to +2.9%, a decline of 0.5%) but instead it surprised to the upside (just as we warned) with a +3.1% YoY print for headline CPI (spoiling the sub-3% partiers). Consumer prices rose 0.3% MoM (more than the 0.2% predicted) but the headline CPI did decline from +3.4% to +3.1% YoY.
  - Zero Hedge, 13 February 2024

• Zero Hedge CPI prediction: "There is a genuine risk" inflation will come in hotter/higher than expected
  - Zero Hedge, 13 February 2024

• Bond liquidity liable to worsen as inflation volatility is high. The combination of supported growth, receding US recession risk, heightened inflation uncertainty, and a deterioration in bond liquidity is a complete recipe for higher bond yields.
  - Zero Hedge, 12 February 2024

• In a first, Moody's downgrades the credit rating of Israel due to its invasion of Gaza
  - Zero Hedge, 10 February 2024

• A surge in growth, as measured by improving financial condition indexes, means bond yields are going up, yet few professional investors believe so
  - Zero Hedge, 08 February 2024

• The national debt of the USA is predicted to reach $54 trillion over the next ten years, an increase of $19 trillion. Congressional Budget Office projections released on Wednesday said a growing economy and recent spending cuts had slowed deficits.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 08 February 2024

• The credit rating of New York Community Bancorp reduce to 'junk' status (from Ba2 to Baa3) by Moody's, the ratings agency. 33% of NYCB's deposits are uninsured. Higher interest rates on commercial real estate loans managed by the bank are creating higher maintenance costs for the borrowers, and the value of the collateral in the properties has been reduced..
  - Zero Hedge, 06 February 2024

• The credit rating of New York Community Bancorp reduce to 'junk' status (from Ba2 to Baa3) by Moody's, the ratings agency. 33% of NYCB's deposits are uninsured. Higher interest rates on commercial real estate loans managed by the bank are creating higher maintenance costs for the borrowers, and the value of the collateral in the properties has been reduced..
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 06 February 2024

• New problems with a regional bank spark a bid for bonds, gold and bitcoin
  - Zero Hedge, 06 February 2024

• The SEC to crack down on basis trades (trading bonds with 20-times leverage to greatly magnify moves as little as 0.01% in bond yields), and will force top hedge funds to register as dealers, which could result in a collapse of liquidity in the Treasury Bond market
  - Zero Hedge, 06 February 2024

• The SEC to crack down on basis trades (trading bonds with 20-times leverage to greatly magnify moves as little as 0.01% in bond yields), and will force top hedge funds to register as dealers, which could result in a collapse of liquidity in the Treasury Bond market
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 06 February 2024

• Bonds, bullion, banks, and bitcoin battered as "good news is bad news" again after Powell says that interest rates will not be reduced soon
  - Zero Hedge, 05 February 2024

• Stocks fell Monday as Treasury Bond yields spiked higher on concerns that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates as much as expected as the 'addicts' on Wall Street hoped. Dow down nearly 1%, SP500 down 0.5%, Nasdaq down 0.6%.
  - Versant's CNBC, 05 February 2024

• 10-year Treasury Bond yields surge a second day to 4.17% as interest rate cut chances get pushed further back
  - Versant's CNBC, 05 February 2024

• A record $10 trillion in Treasury Bonds need to be sold in 2024. Someone will need to buy more than $10 trillion in USA government bonds in 2024. That is more than one-third of US government debt outstanding. And more than one-third of US GDP.
  - Zero Hedge, 04 February 2024

• The US Treasury has a $6 trillion problem. It has to repay $6 trillion of Treasury Bonds in 2024. While it can borrow the money by issuing new Treasury Bonds (not changing the national debt directly), but the bonds will have much higher interest rates, meaning more deficit spending by the US government.
  - Zero Hedge, 02 February 2024

• Inside the most statistically distorted jobs report in recent history. Average wages 'rose' because the BLS decided to sharply slash the number of estimated hours that everyone was working, from 34.3 to just 34.1, which may not sound like a lot until one realizes that the last time the workweek was this low was when the economy was shut down during Covid. For example, average hourly earnings rose, because the BLS arbitrarily reduced the number of estimated hours that everyone was working, from 34.3 to just 34.1, the levels during the Covid recession.
  - Zero Hedge, 02 February 2024

• The massive beat for payrolls, and resurgence in average hourly earnings, prompted a sharp response from markets with the dollar spiking, along with bond yields (10-year above 4% again), as gold (down $20) and the yield curve tumbled, as rate-cut expectations plunged.
  - Zero Hedge, 02 February 2024

• A surprise with the January jobs report: payrolls explode by 353,000, double the expected and higher than all estimates, as wages surge. Manipulating statistics (jobs surged while many are firing people) to help Biden in the election year? There was a huge divergence between the Establishment and Household Surveys, and while the former indicated an increase of 353,000, the latter reported a drop in Employment of 31,000.
  - Zero Hedge, 02 February 2024

• A blockbuster jobs report (admittedly with distortions) allows the Fed to be patient as it waits to reduce interest rates. Given continued strength of the economy, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to feel pressure to cut interest rates at its next meeting in March.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 02 February 2024

• Stocks, bond yields, and gold decline in price after Fed Chair Powell makes it very clear - no immediate interest rate reductions, while assailing the market bubbling of AI
  - Zero Hedge, 31 January 2024

• The Fed signals interest rate reductions are possible but not imminent as it holds rates steady. The cenbnk{USA} bank abandons formal guidance that had kept hikes on the table since last raising rates in July.
  - Ochs-Sulzberger's New York Times, 31 January 2024

• Treasury Bond yields tumble, futures soar after the USA Treasury unexpectedly slashes borrowing estimates. And in three months, when the actual debt issuance comes in about $200BN higher, well.
  - Zero Hedge, 29 January 2024

• While Asian countries won't sell their huge Treasury Bond portfolios, they may be less interested in buying a lot of the $2 trillion in Treasury Bonds that the USA needs to sell this year. And if one country starts selling, they will all start selling, send up bond yields (and the debt problems of the USA) up sharply.
  - Murdoch's Barron's, 27 January 2024

• A 'catastrophic' auction for 5-year Treasury bonds sends yields surging
  - Zero Hedge, 24 January 2024

• Cryptocurrencies continue to decline in price as the dollar spikes, yield curve steepens with 'soft' data slumping
  - Zero Hedge, 23 January 2024

• Companies are on a $150 billion debt binge, borrowing at the fastest pace to start the year in 3 decades. Firms took out a record $150 billion in bond-issued debt this month, the most ever recorded in the first few weeks of January.
  - Business Insider, 22 January 2024

• Citigroup, a giant broker in the world of municipal bonds, is quitting the business. What it means for the $4 trillion market. State and local governments have long relied on muni market heavyweight.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 22 January 2024

• Campbell Harvey, the inventor of the 'inverted yield curve' as the famous recession indicator, is confident that the current inverted yield curve is accurately predicting an economic slowdown in 2024. More specifically, it is actually when the curve de-inverts and long-term yields again exceed those of short-term bonds that signals a downturn has arrived.
  - Business Insider, 20 January 2024

• Stocks and bond prices tumble after the Fed's Waller issued comments that push down odds of interest rate reductions by the Fed
  - Zero Hedge, 16 January 2024

• Stock index futures decline as the USA dollar surges, and the 10-year Treasury Bond yield rises above 4%
  - Zero Hedge, 16 January 2024

• The Treasury Bond yield-curve dis-inverts after a 'cool' PPI report, with gold and bond prices bouncing
  - Zero Hedge, 12 January 2024

• A 'hot' inflation report dampens hopes of interest rate reductions by the Fed, sending up the prices of cryptocurrencies and the yields of Treasury Bonds
  - Zero Hedge, 11 January 2024

• 10-year Treasury Bond yield rises above 4.06% after higher-than-expected December CPI
  - Versant's CNBC, 11 January 2024

• Three-year Treasury bonds received a good auction since bond yields dropped sharply just ahead of the pricing
  - Zero Hedge, 09 January 2024

• Option positioning for Treasury Bonds is a lot more balanced as bonds correct. Sentiment toward Treasuries is showing a remarkable pullback from the exuberance of coming bond price increase that we saw toward the go-go days of November and December.
  - Zero Hedge, 08 January 2024

• Wall Street starts buying bonds again. The consensus is that the Fed won't increase interest rates for this economic cycle, making further investments in Treasurys and highly rated corporate bonds a good bet, analysts managers say.
  - Murdoch's Wall Street Journal (locked), 08 January 2024

• The Fed manipulates the financial markets, yes. But the impact of Treasury borrowing to finance the massive federal deficit in the USA is largely out of the view of the investing puvblic. But it was a major force in the sharp rise in bond yields and the resulting slump in stocks late last summer and into the fall, and an underappreciated factor in the rebounds of the debt and equity markets in the last two months of the year. Don't expect a repeat. The huge gains in the last two months occurred after the Treasury trimmed its plans to issue more long-term debta move abetted by Powell's acknowledgment that the Fed was likely done raising short-term interest rates.
  - Murdoch's Barron's, 06 January 2024

• Inside the catastrophic jobs report: a record 1.5 million decline/crash in full-time jobs, while the number of multiple jobholders soar to a record high, and while the number of native born workers plunge
  - Zero Hedge, 05 January 2024

• Stock and bond prices, and gold prices, decline as hopes for interest rate reductions plunge after today's 'positive' jobs report
  - Zero Hedge, 05 January 2024

• The number of new jobs rose more than predictted in December, and wages increased, while unemployment remains low. An economy doing well enough for the Fed not to reduce interest rates in March, depriving the stock markets of their favorite drug.
  - Zero Hedge, 05 January 2024

• The odds of an interest rate reduction by the ECB decline after reports that inflation in the EU re-acclerated in December
  - Zero Hedge, 05 January 2024

• Global bonds and stocks suffer the biggest rout to start a year since 1999, with global bond and stock capitalization down $1.55 trillion.
  - Zero Hedge, 03 January 2024

• Treasury Bond prices are predicting imminent reductions in interest rates by the Fed. The inordinate loosening of financial conditions since the release of the December dot plot has perhaps had the effect of a de facto rate cut or two.
  - Zero Hedge, 02 January 2024